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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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From: regli12/18/2006 2:09:31 PM
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Holiday sales growth about half of last year: report

today.reuters.com

Mon Dec 18, 2006 2:31 AM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shoe sales have jumped this holiday season, but they haven't been enough to kick up holiday sales growth overall, according to a MasterCard Advisors survey.

The data, which focus on credit card spending and other economic indicators, show that spending in November and December has climbed at half the rate of last year's 8-percent growth.

Due to warmer-than-usual temperatures, apparel sales growth has lagged, with spending rising 2 percent to 4 percent, from last year's 5 percent to 6 percent, according to sales figures captured by SpendingPulse, retail data service provider for MasterCard Advisors.

Spending on home goods, too, has slowed as higher interest rates have crimped new housing demand and consumers have held off buying appliances such as refrigerators and microwaves.

The statistics offer an early sign of the strength of holiday sales, which analysts, investors and retailers scrutinize to determine consumer strength and confidence.

Holiday sales have a material impact on an array of retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. <WMT.N>, high-end handbag maker Coach Inc. <COH.N> and department store operator Federated Department Stores Inc. <FD.N>

"We're looking at the midpoint of the holiday season, heading into the home stretch," said SpendingPulse Vice President Michael McNamara. "Overall, sales are up but not at the same growth rate we've gotten used to seeing over the last couple of years."

The last 10 days before Christmas will account for 25 percent of total sales volume for the holiday selling season, McNamara said.

"The housing market slowdown is having a ripple effect," he said, "And warmer weather hasn't helped apparel sales. What we want to see is nice, clear and cool conditions."

Coats, scarves and hats stay on shelves when the weather is mild, and consumers may be putting their dollars toward shoes, McNamara said.

Overall demand for footwear has soared by 7 percent to 8 percent over last year. While SpendingPulse didn't break out footwear sales in 2005, McNamara said the growth trend was stronger.

Online sales growth has also declined so far this holiday selling season. Generally, Web sales jump about 20 percent yearly, but "this year they're in the teens," said McNamara.

Still, the overall purchase price has risen by 1.6 percent, he said.

SpendingPulse reports are based on aggregated sales activity in the MasterCard U.S. payments network, coupled with estimates on all other payments forms, including cash and check. SpendingPulse is a retail data service of MasterCard Advisors, an arm of MasterCard Worldwide.
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