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Politics : The Next President 2008

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From: Peter Dierks12/18/2006 2:12:03 PM
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Not So Fast
Why Barack Obama may not run.

Monday, December 18, 2006 12:01 a.m. EST

Just about everybody seems convinced that Sen. Barack Obama is going to run for president. The Chicago Sun-Times, his hometown paper, is writing as if his candidacy is an established fact. Newsweek magazine cites sources close to him who claim that he's "about 80 percent" certain to run. Obamamania will continue to build until the Illinois senator announces next month . . .

Time out. Let's look at the 1 in 5 chance that even his own advisers say he won't run. I think it's greater than that. We've been here before with the Big Media clamoring for an attractive black candidate to make history. In 1995 there was a similar push to get Colin Powell to run, but he wisely demurred, citing family concerns about his security and the belief that he couldn't win the GOP nomination. Mr. Obama may similarly surprise everyone by not running ...

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