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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (76177)12/20/2006 11:13:08 AM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
I see. I expected that for the past 2 years, but it never
happened. If that happens, however, would not you expect
derivative markets to blow up? To paper over it would require a
lot more printing from the Fed, although one might have
a (brief) collapse in commodities. Would you think oil
and gas have collapsed enough already for spec washout?

In my ``scenario'' the dollar goes down the toilet first,
the bonds follow,
since the reserve currency status of the dollar has been
brutally abused by the Fed. I'd think we are not close
to this happening at this point, although we have been
pretty close in May-June this year. The Pig men have pulled
it off once again. It will require more printing to get
to a critical point, exactly what the Fed is doing now.
Rising LT rates could cause stock market melt-up until
some pre-determined level, above which "they" don't want the
rates to rise. Or, I can see a strong dollar drop (mostly
against Yen) coupled with strong rise in LT rates as a
trigger.
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