Keep in mind that stock options added a whopping 11% overall disposable personal income, although almost all to the Bully class, and a small part of it to boot. That will confuse the retail/consumer issue.
Think we already know everybody else is hurting (*). A company to watch is SBUX, as that's more a Bully Wannabe outfit. That should tell us if that group is exhausted, as they are totally dependent on housing as ATM credit, and no real wealth otherwise. However, there's been a pretty decent refi boomlet of late, so I'm not so convinced they are through? Regardless the market and consumer names are priced for perfection, no room for disappointments.
(*) from Liscio Report;
Our index of state sales tax receipts took it on the chin in November, falling to 27% at or above expectation, down from 55% in October. Although the number of states reporting positive growth over the year rose to 80% from 72% in October, several of the states that did not make it to the zero line were in steeply negative territory.
… the weakening consumption trend is now established, and the majority of our tax contacts expressed real concern about slowing in sales tax collections. It now appears clear that consumers are not spending the billions of dollars they have saved on gas in recent months, and comments on the effects of the dual slowdowns in housing and manufacturing centered on how much more is to come.
Some states are meeting lowered projections, but more are missing them, and the possibility of further cuts remains. Our contacts in even the strongest states report yearly growth is now running 2-5% below where it was just a few quarters back.“ |
