When you make a new technology, the chart of volume shipped per unit time will look like a bell curve. At first the technology is slow to be accepted, being bought only by the enthusiasts. Then early adopters come in, pushing up the steep slope of the curve. The curve peaks and the regular joes come in, starting the downward side of the curve. Finally only the timid latecomers are getting on the bandwagon, while everyone else is on to the next thing.
What I meant is that volume of nickel-hydride shipped annually is still increasing & is projected to keep increasing for another few years. Although better technology such as lithium-ion exists & is known by customers, it costs twice as much for less than 30% extra capacity. So while it is "obsolete" it will not start to decrease in popularity for quite a while.
In general, it takes about 3 to 5 years from technology introduction to gain good market awareness, 10 years to gain wide market acceptance (50% market penetration), and 20 years to gain ubiquity (99% market penetration). This is accelerating as society becomes more technology-aware, especially with software, where the barriers to near-instant upgrade (anybody else hitting microsoft.com at midnight tonight?) are falling. But there is still the fundamental lag of social acceptance even in the face of no technical barriers. It just takes time for people to develop the need, understand the benefits, learn about the technology, develop the next round of products, make mistakes & learn from them, and sell enough through to the market that statistically, most people have heard of it & trust it. |
