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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 137.34+0.8%Feb 6 9:30 AM EST
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To: waitwatchwander who wrote (57907)12/21/2006 11:47:46 PM
From: slacker711   of 197626
 
I cant seem to find their numbers for the September quarter. I think they may never have been released.

In any case, they do have some numbers from the June quarter.

pantech.com

The total handset shipments declined 30% to 1.8 million, while ASP's dropped 2.3% to $160.

Let's say that Pantech had another disastrous quarter and shipments dropped another 25%, while ASP's stayed flat. This should probably be conservative since I dont think that they have had any huge drop off in the Korean market.

1.35 million handsets*$160 ASP*5% royalty = $10.8 million

That is pretax so less than half a penny (I think margins should be 100% on this since it most of QTL's expenses should be fixed employee costs).

Your $35 ASP on chipsets is way high. I would guess that it would be more like $17 (since their overall ASP is less than average). I have no idea how the terms of payment for Qualcomm's chipset shipments would work. Would a customer pay every month or after every shipment? Would Qualcomm have been requiring cash upfront once they saw Pantech was running into diffulties?

Using my numbers, an entire quarters worth of chipsets for Pantech would only be worth $23 million in revenue. Since Qualcomm bore the costs of the chips without the revenue, all of it would drop to the bottom line.

A lot of my numbers are just WAG's, but it looks like Pantech could have chopped anywhere from .5-1.5 cents off of Q's earnings. That at least would have kept them in their prior range.

Slacker
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