In my case, it is probably the same love of calc and diffeq
that has compulsively driven me to master some of TA. After
learning what Newton and Einstein among others had done
in taming some of the chaos of reality using mathematics, I
believed math could interpret any event. Since then, I
have learned much about the limits of math when attempting
to apply to human behavior - markets. Of course, it could
be that we do not yet see the forest.
Your kind word encourages me to share a few ideas about
LGND. Over the last two market days - 9-26 and 9-29,
LGND has had two tests of the 16 level, forming a W-type
bottom on a very short term basis.. probably good for 2 or 3
days of upside push. Interestingly, the 1st drop to 16 on
Friday, 9-26 penetrated the lower Bollinger Band on a very
short Intraday trading chart. LGND then bounced back up
inside the Band, to 16 1/2 on Monday, 9-29, before re-testing
16 again... this time stopping dead-on the lower Bollinger Band.
A fast rally ensued to a peak of 16 7/8, before backing and
filling to close at 16 1/2, + 1/4 on the day, with vol=417K.
The close on Mon, 9-29 is just below the center-line of the
Bollinger trading bands. Any movement above 16 9/16 will
paint LGND bullish. LGND should immediately go to 17 1/4,
and if volume remains ok, move to that next target of 19 3/4.
The arcane-sounding analysis only helps because there are
now a few hundred thousand computers looking at stock
price data every day, screening for these types of patterns to
emerge in stocks with good fundamental stories. Note that
without LGND's fundamentals, I would not bother to apply
TA. Over the last few years, pattern analysis without good
fundamentals has failed more and more.
At this point, LGND has continued to hold the 20-day MA.
With the up-close today, the OBV has set another new all-
time high, pointing to new high prices above 19 3/4 to come.
Can't say when, but if LGND can close over 17 by 10-2-97,
it should be on the way directly, with some hesitation at
17 3/4, and possibly one more intraday drop to the 20-day
MA, to shake the 'weak hands' one more time. All of this
price action would be interpreted by chartists as a rising
wedge - a bullish configuration.
All of this is, of course, really about a great bunch of
scientists, backed by hopeful capitalists, all working to
eliminate cancer. Awesome! Think of TA as a parlor
puzzle to solve while awaiting the results from the BIG game.
Good luck to us all! |
