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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: quehubo who wrote (76707)12/22/2006 5:03:44 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 206302
 
With heat forecasted into January, if we do not see some decent forecasts during the first week of heat in January I expect some serious bloodshed.

so if bearish weather is forecast, why should that be bearish for the stocks three weeks from now, as opposed to whenever the forecasts were known? people already know the forecasts, and the forecasts should already be discounted in stock prices. unless stock investors don't know how to access The Weather Channel or read meteorology threads like this one. a year ago many on this thread were predicting bloodshed in January based on the weather forecasts. then January turned out to be fantastic for the stocks, weather be damned.

i'm not saying this January will be great again (i have no idea), but i am skeptical that stocks will be mauled simply because the weather does what people expect it to do anyway.

while noise is inherently difficult if not impossible to predict consistently, i would not be surprised if other factors become prominent in January. just as December sees a lot of tax-loss selling in weak stocks, Jan sees buying in the same. and sometimes strong stocks through the end of the year sell off in Jan when people can push profit realization out another 12 months. how do you separate the thermometer from these and other factors?

not to mention that stock in a company represents a share of the company's longterm earnings power, not just a meteorological lottery ticket.
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