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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (76742)	12/22/2006 7:10:49 PM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (2) of 206299

The 12 month ng strip has dropped $1.30 since the beginning of the month. If an El Nino of this magnitude was fully anticipated the futures and the ng related equities would not have moved in this manner. Most of the weather forecasters are only reliable looking out 2 or 3 weeks or until a major pattern starts signalling a change. In the Summer when the heat was forecasted to break in August I scaled way back. This even though reliable forecasts were in agreement that September would be hot like last year. The trend was hot. But I was not going to take my chances. September October both turned out to be cooler than normal even though forecasts expected warmer. Then in late October the forecasts were looking for a cooler than normal eastern 1/3 in November and December. If I thought we were forecasting +/- 5% of normal weather I would be much less concerned. Also if I thought the difference in weather would make the difference between 1,200 bcf and 1,500 bcf on April 1 I would not be so worried. But this pattern is pointing us towards >10% above normal and closer to 1,900 bcf on April 1. Understanding and trying to anticipate seasonal money flows makes sense also. Now one would think January February would be quite good for energy if the weather flips. But with swelling inventories in NA and Europe will the first cold spell get sold into? If we get a good signal of a cold spell in January I will be buying because you dont want to miss a chance of a good move because of the fear that the cold may not last. At today's equity prices ending below 1,500 bcf verse above 1,800 could make a world of difference in the prices of EOG PTEN et al. I think the economy should be a concern as well as the valuation of non energy equities. Until the PNA forecasts positive along with a negative AO and or NAO it appears we have little chance for cold. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov cpc.ncep.noaa.gov cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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