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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: 8bits who wrote (69460)12/26/2006 8:50:30 PM
From: Wyätt GwyönRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
market in the Bay Area is fairly varied in terms of supply/demand dynamics

i have heard that kind of thing. but i think it will all go down horribly nonetheless. my understanding is Bay Area volumes are down 25-30% YoY, on very slight price increases. this is a classic precursor to a price drop.

Exurbia SF Bay Area is definitely falling (Tracy, Brentwood, etc)

it makes sense that the less desirable areas will fall first, just as they rose last. but they are just the canaries in the coal mine. the rest of the Bay Area, and California as a whole, will also be decimated (in the modern sense, not the Latin "one-tenth" sense).

for an excellent zip-code-by-zip-code view of how the last SoCal boom/bust/boom played out from mid-80s to early 00's, see graphs in the paper titled "Has the Fire Burned Out?", accessible at the bottom of this page, starting around page 10: firstamres.com
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