Javelyn: Your commentary has a certain logic which can definitely be applied in a "generalist" market sector. And some portions of that logic may apply to the battery industry. However, I must point out, that VLNC isn't looking to market their batteries to your average consumer, at least not at first. Their initial target appears to be OEM's of such types as cellphones, laptops, etc.. There the "obsolesence" curve rivals CPU chip technology, or the 'ol calvary philosophy of "whoever gets there the firstist with the mostest wins!"
My logic is equally as simple, with all OEM's selling the same "apples" they are continually striving for market differentiation. And in todays world of portable devices a key differentiating point has got to be "mine lasts longer than yours." So I don't think they'll be quite as reluctant to adopt the new battery technology ASAP, as your average consumer would be.
Of course, this is only my opinion, but I'd consider it verified if VLNC announces a COMMERCIAL product, followed by OEM contract announcements. After all, I believe Cal Reed can be quoted as saying, "We can sell all we can make." That doesn't point to a slow ramp up.
Regards!
John~
Oh, by the way, this is not to negate other battery technologies like NiMHd, etc.. I'd expect them to continue into the short/medium term future(10 years?) in such diverse areas as they are now in, plus others like electric vehicle technology(see a company called Energy Conversion Devices). But in the portable area.....once Lithium Polymer mass manufacturing is enabled, I'd expect to see NiMHd to go quickly by the wayside. The speed of that "wayside shove" should only be limited by the availability of manufacturing capacity which over time should expand to meet demand. |
