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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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From: Paul Kern12/27/2006 7:05:51 AM
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*DJ US MBA Market Index Falls 14.2% To 555.8 From 647.6

*DJ US MBA Purchase Index Falls 10.6% To 390.2 From 436.5

*DJ US MBA Refinancing Index Falls 18.5% To 1604.6 Vs 1968.8

DJ US MBA Mortgage Survey Snapshot



WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Following is data from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America's weekly mortgage application survey, released Wednesday.

Seasonally Unadjusted Seasonally Adjusted
Week Market Purchase Refi Market Purchase Refi
Ending Index Index Index Index Index Index
12/22/06 482.6 289.8 1604.6 555.8 390.2 1604.6
12/15/06 567.9 327.3 1968.8 647.6 436.5 1968.8
12/08/06 642.4 356.8 2304.4 721.2 463.8 2304.4
12/01/06 582.8 341.1 1989.7 647.6 426.6 1989.7
11/24/06 383.3 238.8 1224.7 599.0 406.7 1749.6
11/17/06 584.0 351.9 1935.3 623.6 401.4 1935.3
11/10/06 555.8 338.6 1820.0 647.5 412.9 2022.2
11/03/06 601.5 378.8 1897.9 620.9 402.2 1897.9
10/27/06 557.0 359.1 1709.2 570.8 375.6 1709.2
10/20/06 575.9 367.2 1790.4 588.6 382.4 1790.4
10/13/06 573.1 369.5 1758.2 585.8 384.7 1758.2
10/06/06 586.5 368.2 1857.0 599.1 383.3 1857.0
09/29/06 619.3 387.1 1970.8 633.9 404.6 1970.8
09/22/06 555.2 362.4 1677.5 566.5 375.9 1677.5

DJ US MBA Mortgage Survey Table Of Seasonally Adjusted Data


Seasonally Adjusted data for week ending 12/22/2006

Composite Index Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago
Market 555.8 647.6 -14.2 599.0 554.1
Purchase 390.2 436.5 -10.6 406.7 432.9
Refi 1604.6 1968.8 -18.5 1749.6 1259.1
Fixed-Rate 448.1 518.7 -13.6 474.3 391.8
ARM 2815.9 3351.7 -16.0 3214.1 3953.6

Conventional Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago
Total 826.1 963.9 -14.3 888.6 824.9
Purchase 607.2 681.3 -10.9 631.1 682.5
Refi 1808.9 2214.5 -18.3 1969.8 1403.8
Fixed-Rate 661.8 767.8 -13.8 698.1 575.9
ARM 4194.8 4986.2 -15.9 4793.9 5930.1

Government Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago
Total 105.4 120.3 -12.4 116.1 102.2
Purchase 80.1 86.7 -7.6 86.0 76.4
Refi 525.8 671.6 -21.7 587.3 496.7
Fixed-Rate 92.6 104.1 -11.0 101.6 85.2
ARM 386.9 474.3 -18.4 433.1 473.4

DJ US MBA Mortgage Survey Table Of Unadjusted Data


Unadjusted data for week ending 12/22/2006

Composite Index Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago
Market 482.6 567.9 -15.0 383.3 413.8
Purchase 289.8 327.3 -11.5 238.8 290.2
Refi 1604.6 1968.8 -18.5 1224.7 1133.2
Fixed-Rate 389.1 454.9 -14.5 303.6 292.6
ARM 2444.8 2939.4 -16.8 2057.1 2952.3

Conventional Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago
Total 719.1 847.2 -15.1 569.6 616.6
Purchase 451.0 510.8 -11.7 370.5 457.5
Refi 1808.9 2214.5 -18.3 1378.8 1263.4
Fixed-Rate 576.1 674.8 -14.6 447.5 430.5
ARM 3651.5 4382.3 -16.7 3073.1 4432.6

Government Market Current Prev Week % Change 4 Wks Ago Year Ago
Total 88.2 102.3 -13.8 72.7 75.5
Purchase 59.5 65.0 -8.5 50.5 51.2
Refi 525.8 671.6 -21.7 411.1 447.0
Fixed-Rate 77.5 88.6 -12.5 63.6 62.9
ARM 323.8 403.4 -19.7 271.3 349.6

DJ US MBA Mortgage Survey Table Of Comparisons


Percent Change In Percent Change
No. Of Applications In Dollar Value Avg
Week Ago 4Wks Ago Yr Ago Week Ago 4Wks Ago Yr Ago Loan
($000)
Total -15.0 25.9 16.6 -16.0 28.7 25.1 245.2
Purchase -11.4 21.4 -0.1 -11.9 24.0 3.5 229.3
Refi -18.5 31.0 41.6 -19.5 33.4 54.7 261.9
Fixed-Rate -14.5 28.2 33.0 -14.7 31.4 51.5 203.8
ARM -16.8 18.8 -17.2 -18.2 24.3 -4.5 382.9


Conventional -15.1 26.2 16.6 -16.1 29.1 26.1 253.0
Purchase -11.7 21.7 -1.4 -11.9 24.2 3.0 237.0
Refi -18.3 31.2 43.2 -19.4 33.8 57.9 269.2
Fixed-Rate -14.6 28.7 33.8 -14.8 31.9 53.8 209.9
ARM -16.7 18.8 -17.6 -18.1 24.5 -3.8 392.5


Government -13.8 21.3 16.9 -14.6 21.1 3.1 139.1
Purchase -8.4 17.8 16.4 -11.8 21.2 13.8 145.5
Refi -21.7 27.9 17.7 -19.6 21.1 -13.0 128.0
Fixed-Rate -12.5 21.7 23.1 -12.9 22.3 16.3 129.1
ARM -19.7 19.4 -7.4 -20.2 17.2 -26.2 191.3



DJ US MBA Mortgage Survey Table Of Current Interest Rates


Change in Contract Rate (bps)
Effective Total Contract 1 Week 4 Weeks 1 Year
Rate Points Rate Ago Ago Ago
30-Year Fixed 6.31 0.96 6.12 1 -1 -9
15-Year Fixed 6.10 1.06 5.84 2 -3 8
7-Year Balloon 6.49 1.20 6.19 8 6 34
5-Year Balloon 7.09 1.23 6.78 -5 10 57
ARM, 1-Yr Tsy 6.07 0.80 5.87 5 1 51
FHA 203 (b) 6.37 0.91 6.21 9 -1 41
All rates except FHA 203(b) are for 80% loan-to-value mortgage.



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

12-27-06 0700ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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