Iran: Loss at the Polls, but No Foreign Policy Shift(copy and paste via strtfr) 12/22
Summary
Hard-line conservative allies of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad suffered a major defeat at the hands of pragmatic conservatives led by former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, final results from local municipal and Assembly of Experts elections released Dec. 21 show. Though the results probably will not impact Iran's foreign policy agenda, they will prompt Ahmadinejad to step up his promotion of Iran's nuclear program in an attempt to win back support.
Analysis
The final results of Iran's local municipal and Assembly of Experts elections came in Dec. 21, revealing a substantial drop in support for hard-line conservative allies of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Ahmadinejad has sought to emphasize the high voter turnout (around 60 percent) as evidence of the vibrancy of Iranian democracy. But he cannot gloss over the sizable number of Iranians who do not view him the way they did in the June 2005 election that swept him to power.
Reformist candidates swept the majority of seats in municipal elections in Iran's five largest cities, constituting a major comeback after the series of political defeats they have suffered since 2003. In the race for the Tehran City Council, the most important of the municipal races, main Ahmadinejad rival and Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf won a comfortable majority. In the Assembly of Experts elections, Ahmadinejad's hard-line fundamentalist mentor Ayatollah Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi lost to the pragmatic conservative former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who will now head the 85-member council with the solid backing of 65 members.
The decline in support for Ahmadinejad stems primarily from the Iranian population's disillusionment with the president's populist campaign, which has done little to improve economic conditions in the country. According to sources in Tehran, the average Iranian is more interested in electing someone who speaks less and works more to reduce the price of goods. Ahmadinejad's populist appeal has waned substantially as more Iranians realize they are paying higher prices for bread and chicken now than they did last year.
But Ahmadinejad's losses in both elections will not cause any major shift in Tehran's nuclear program or its policy toward Iraq. The Assembly of Experts holds the highest constitutional authority in the country. This includes the power to elect and dismiss Iran's supreme leader, who controls the entire government and can veto any legislation.
The United States will be more comfortable now that Rafsanjani, who is known to be on the pragmatic side, has expanded his influence in the assembly. But Rafsanjani's policies are unlikely to detract from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's agenda to advance the country's nuclear program and consolidate its gains in Iraq. In practice, the assembly's power is more symbolic than practical, since assembly members rarely object to the supreme leader's guidance -- and are generally counted on to shower the supreme leader with praise and adoration.
Nonetheless, Ahmadinejad has received a major wake-up call, and will have to turn his attention back home to win back his grassroots support ahead of the February 2008 parliamentary elections. Though many Iranians are unhappy with his inability to address the country's economic woes, Ahmadinejad has been successful at promoting the country's nuclear program as a source of national pride.
The completely ineffectual sanctions against Iran currently under discussion in the U.N. Security Council will only rally Iranian citizens around Ahmadinejad's bold rhetoric calling for the acquisition of nuclear power at any cost. The anniversary of the victory of the Islamic revolution takes place Feb. 11, 2007, giving the president another good opportunity to boast about Iran's nuclear achievements. So even though Iran's economic problems might have no simple solution, Ahmadinejad will still have nukes to fall back on as a short-term cure for his electoral ills.>> |
