analysis via strtfor which i categorize as rightwing realist. only interest by me is to get their perspective.
This verifies the U.S. and Brits are out to crush the Mahdi--this will blow up in their face in time.
If they assassinate Moqtada could well bring in Iran and for all hell to break loose.
To be remembered Sistani and the SCIRI have denounced this attack on Sadrist and Sistani has personally called for his support.
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Geopolitical Diary: The al-Sadr Threat to the U.S. Plan for Iraq
Although much of Wednesday's news from Iraq concerned a letter reportedly written by former President Saddam Hussein, the most important event centered on U.S. efforts against radical Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr.
The letter -- allegedly written by Hussein on Nov. 5, the day an Iraqi court sentenced him to death for crimes against humanity -- urges Iraqis to unite to fight foreign forces in the country. Following its release, a Baath Party Web site posted a statement saying American interests worldwide would be attacked if the Iraqi government executes Hussein, and that his death would make cooperation between the surviving Baathists and the U.S.-backed government in Baghdad impossible.
But, for all the drama sparked by Hussein's letter and the threats, the former president and his followers pose no real danger. The violence in Iraq will continue no matter what happens to Hussein. Given his lack of influence in the country since his ouster, and the fact that most armed groups in Iraq would string him up themselves if they could, his execution might inspire emotional outbursts and some isolated attacks but it is unlikely to be the catalyst for major violence. This is largely because Hussein loyalists are responsible for a very small part of the bloodshed; they do not have the presence or the means to significantly increase attacks, and they will probably be more concerned with staying one step ahead of the various Shiite militias and rival Sunni groups than with retaliating against coalition forces for the execution of the former president.
What is important, however, is the death of Sahib al-Ameri, al-Sadr's representative in the holy Shiite city of An Najaf and the secretary-general of the Martyrs Foundation, a pro-Sadr political organization. According to coalition forces, al-Ameri was killed Wednesday when he ran to the roof of his house as it was being raided by coalition and Iraqi troops and pointed an assault rifle at an Iraqi soldier. The raid in An Najaf was one of many in recent months targeting known associates of al-Sadr.
These raids are part of an effort to put pressure on al-Sadr, who could be a serious obstacle to any U.S. exit strategy. The Shiite leader's Mehdi Army and its associated militias are not as constrained by politics as the other major Shiite militant group, the Badr Brigades; they are less organized and their members are less integrated into the Iraqi security forces and Cabinet, which makes them more difficult to control. From its bases in Sadr City and other strongholds, the Mehdi Army constitutes a significant armed presence in many areas of Baghdad. The militias -- and their associated death squads -- present a considerable obstacle to security in the capital.
The U.S.-led coalition has been working hard to constrain al-Sadr's power in recent months, most notably by going after his allies and lieutenants and disrupting his operations in Baghdad and other cities. U.S. and Iraqi forces have conducted several raids in Sadr City since November, arresting members of the Mehdi Army believed to be linked to Shiite death squads. During one four-day period, the neighborhood was raided three times. More recently, British forces deliberately demolished the headquarters of the Iraqi police's Serious Crimes Unit in Basra after the unit, which was heavily infiltrated by the Mehdi Army, was linked to death squads and arms- and oil-smuggling rackets.
The pressure on al-Sadr makes things difficult for Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whose coalition is nominally supported by the Shiite leader. Despite al-Maliki's protests, the United States has continued to target al-Sadr's forces -- an indication of just how important it is to Washington that al-Sadr be weakened or neutralized. Because any prospective U.S. reinforcements will not arrive in the region until January, and not in significant numbers until months later, now is al-Sadr's time to act. His best hope is to convince al-Maliki that any campaign against the Mehdi Army would be too costly for the Iraqi state to endure.
While Hussein might be urging Iraqis to carry on bravely without him, and his party is threatening terrible repercussions if he is executed, it appears that al-Sadr is the greater threat to the U.S. plan for Iraq.
Situation Reports
1245 GMT -- SUDAN -- U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan announced Dec. 28 the receipt of a letter from Sudanese President Omar al Bashir that accepts in principle the deployment of a joint African Union-U.N. peacekeeping force for the western Sudanese province of Darfur. Annan called upon the Security Council to quickly coordinate with the African Union to name a new U.N. special representative to Sudan as well as a commander for the joint force so that it could be deployed as quickly as possible. Annan estimated that the hybrid force will have a minimum strength of 17,300 military personnel and 3,300 civilian police. The Sudanese government has not yet agreed to a cease-fire with the Darfur rebels.
1231 GMT -- EGYPT -- The Egyptian government shipped weapons, including 2,000 AK-47 rifles, 20,000 magazines and two million rounds of ammunition, to Palestinian National Authority police forces in the Gaza strip via the Kerem Shalom crossing with the full knowledge and approval of the Israeli government Dec. 27, Haaretz reported Dec. 28. The weapons will supply the Fatah faction in Gaza, which has regularly complained that it is outgunned by the rival Hamas faction that controls the region's weapons-smuggling activities.
1223 GMT -- BELARUS -- Belarusian Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Semashko said Dec. 28 that should Russia and Belarus not strike a deal for natural gas imports, then Belarus would consider existing deals on the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe void. Belarus currently gets all of its natural gas from Russia at what Russian state energy firm Gazprom considers to be below market prices. Gazprom is attempting to force Belarus to accept a price increase from the current $47 per 1,000 cubic meters to $200 per 1,000 cubic meters. About 20 percent of the natural gas that Gazprom ships to Europe transits through Belarus.
1216 GMT -- SOMALIA -- A number of reports from Somalian media Dec. 28 indicate that Ethiopian and Somalian interim government forces are close to retaking control of the capital, Mogadishu, from fighters loyal to the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC). The SICC began withdrawing from the city a week ago after clashing with intervening Ethiopian forces. The interim government now claims control of the Mogadishu airport and all major roads leading into the city.
1201 GMT -- ECUADOR -- Ecuadorian President-elect Rafael Correa appointed Guadalupe Larriva as defense minister Dec. 27. Larriva will be the first defense chief who has not served in the military, as well as the first woman defense minister. Ecuador has suffered repeated coups, military and otherwise.
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