Obama strong in new poll
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Illinois senator would beat both McCain and Giuliani
concordmonitor.com
<<...Two weeks after speaking to a sell-out Manchester crowd of more than 1,600, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is reaping the benefits of his visit. If the Democratic primary were held today, Obama would be in a statistical dead heat with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, according to a new Monitor poll. Last month, a Monitor poll showed Clinton trouncing her opponents, with Obama lagging 23 points behind.
"I'm not surprised, because Barack Obama got five days of constant media attention in New Hampshire," said Jim Demers, a lobbyist and former Democratic lawmaker who accompanied Obama throughout the senator's New Hampshire visit. "Obama has demonstrated to the people of New Hampshire that he's a top-tier candidate."
Although Clinton commands considerable support among likely Democratic primary voters, she struggles in general election match-ups, according to the poll. If the contest were held today, both Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani would prevail over Clinton. Obama, in contrast, would eke out a slight win over both Republican candidates. Former Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards is neck-and-neck with the Republicans.
"There are a lot of independents. These are the same people who loathe Bush, loathe the Iraq war," said Del Ali, president of Research 2000, the Maryland-based nonpartisan polling firm that conducted the poll for the Monitor last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. "But deep down, they don't like Hillary Clinton."
As the 2008 presidential primaries near, the Republican field has also become increasingly competitive. Giuliani closed the gap with McCain in recent weeks, turning an 8-point deficit into a slight lead, according to the poll. Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former House speaker Newt Gingrich trail behind, with 10 percent and 8 percent respectively. The poll shows Giuliani garnering 26 percent to McCain's 25 percent.
"McCain can't take New Hampshire for granted the way he counted on them six years ago," said Dante Scala, a political scientist at St. Anselm College. "If Giuliani could break through anywhere, it would be in New Hampshire, with a large number of independents and a large number of relatively moderate Republicans. He has the opportunity to cause John McCain a lot of grief."
This time around, McCain can no longer rely on being a fresh face, said Edward Mosca, a former chairman of the Manchester Republican Committee. "You've got a limited shelf life in politics, and he's been out there for a while," Mosca said. "I think McCain's biggest obstacle in the primary is that he has the highest expectations."
Roughly one year out from the New Hampshire primary, political observers cautioned that polls offer little insight into the 2008 presidential contest. History books are full of candidates who led the polls but lost the race: Bush, for example held a double-digit lead over McCain in a University of New Hampshire poll conducted nine months before the primary. McCain proceeded to rout his opponents.
"You will have this tremendous amount of energy and motion to secure the allegiance of about 5,000 people," said Charlie Arlinghaus, president of the Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy. "And nobody else is going to start paying attention until after the summer."
But the poll does reflect name recognition, and it may hint at the direction in which voters are leaning, analysts said.
Obama's surge in popularity is "name recognition of an unknown, that's what's really surprising about it," said Arnie Arnesen, a political analyst and former radio talk show host. "We're so yearning for something different, and what we think we know about everyone else doesn't excite us."
Voters interviewed Friday afternoon echoed Arnesen's comment. Lenny Young of Concord compared Obama's charisma to that of John F. Kennedy. "He seems to have it," Young said. Although Young first heard of Obama during the senator's 2004 campaign, it wasn't until Obama visited New Hampshire that he took notice.
Concord resident Mike Sheehan had this advice for the first-term senator: "Ride the wave." Obama's relative lack of experience - an oft-cited criticism - is also an asset. "You figure in six years, only bad things can happen," Sheehan said. As for Clinton, "you either love her or you hate her," Sheehan said.
Excitement about a possible Obama run was also reflected last week in an Iowa poll. If the Iowa Democratic caucus were held today, former vice presidential nominee John Edwards and Obama would each secure 22 percent of the vote, according to the poll, which was conducted by Research 2000, which also conducted the Monitor poll.
A Clinton visit, however, would also likely boost her numbers, Demers said. "I don't think anyone can underestimate Senator Clinton coming in, with her level of name recognition, the role that her husband will be able to play in the campaign and the amount of money that she has and is able to raise."
On the Republican side, Giuliani appeals to tough-on-terrorism social moderates, Ali said. "They've turned off of McCain because of his visits to Jerry Falwell," Ali added. During his 2000 White House bid, McCain called Falwell, a prominent evangelical, one of the "agents of intolerance." McCain has since met with Falwell, and recently delivered the commencement address at Falwell's Liberty University.
The challenge for Giuliani, who is pro-choice, will come after New Hampshire, political observers said. "I wouldn't be shocked if Giuliani won New Hampshire," Ali said. But "what's going to happen when he goes to South Carolina?"
In addition to the challenge from Giuliani, McCain also struggles with his stance on the war. While most prominent lawmakers are focused on withdrawing from Iraq, McCain has called for an increase of troops to quash the insurgency.
Support for the conflict in New Hampshire is at an all-time low, according to the poll. Three years ago, 79 percent of Granite State voters rated Bush's performance in handling the conflict excellent or good. Today, that figure has plummeted to 29 percent. The vast majority - 60 percent of voters - want troops to begin withdrawing before 2010.
Research 2000 used randomly generated telephone numbers to interview 600 likely voters. Those interviewed - 184 Democrats (31 percent), 193 Republicans (32 percent) and 223 voters who identified themselves as independents (37 percent) - reflect voter registration numbers statewide. The interviews included 288 men and 312 women. The poll has a 4 percent margin of error.
For questions about the Democratic primary, Research 2000 polled Democrats and individuals who identify as independents but said they would likely vote in the Democratic primary. The same strategy was used for questions about the Republican primary. In order to poll 400 likely voters about each primary, Research 2000 conducted an over-sample, interviewing additional residents.
Apart from who's up and who's down in the primary polls, support for Edwards and Obama in the presidential match-ups reflect a larger political trend, Scala said. "These results reflect that New Hampshire is a purple state that leans toward the Democrats."...>> |
