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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: hawkeyefan who wrote (139786)	12/30/2006 11:56:39 AM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) of 209892

SPX is some 8 days away from a multi-year high. The uptrend is intact. There are some momentum divergences developing over the past couple of months on the daily and weekly... but no confirmation as yet. The decline since 12/18 so far is strictly a three-waver. The 50dema is near 1395 -- and the 200dma (simple) is just about a 100 points below the current price. There are no meaningful lower lows in sight. OTOH, the price action is stretched, and it is becoming more volatile - and maybe ED-like in appearance. The sentiment is very bullish (MC's favorite Citigroup's "panic" level measurements notwithstanding -g). The COT is decidedly bearish: softwarenorth.net Hussman (as I posted a day or two back) is quoting a study where only 1% of money managers were bracing for a more than a 10% correction next year.... which I find to be totally shocking. hussmanfunds.com NDX, of course, is more interesting from the short side. On NDX, the momentum actually seems to be changing. The first few days of the New Year (best wishes to everyone!) promise to be interesting.

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