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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: hawkeyefan who wrote (139786)	12/30/2006 12:19:07 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (1) of 209892

hawk...from a strict EW point of view, ...guess we could see SPX pullback all the way to the 1320s without "finishing" the rally. My stabs at EW counts have us now in a iv down off of the 9/11 low...The top of the corresponding 1 up...which cannot be overlapped....is 1324.89. However, anything that severe would certain raise questions...at the least...about the rally. The normal expectation here would be a pullback to no more than the bottom of the preceding 4th of lesser degree...and that's 1381.45. Beyond that would raise red flags IMHO...Also, TA-wise, any break below the 50dMA which has underlain the entire rally since last summer would raise red flags..(50d now at 1397 and rising). Re NDX...I don't try to count that..but I'd watch particularly here the ability to hold above last Tuesday's low...and the ability to bounce above the 50dMA it's been playing around with the past week or so.....I would not, at this stage, exclude that the pattern over the past month may be bullish.. Re that SMH wedge...I, too, wouldn't touch it UNLESS/UNTIL it breaks above the upper line of that wedge. Action here, btw, should be very relevant to action in the NDX...

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