BCRX 15% 11.56
COLY 10% 9.69
CRME 10% 11.15
IDIX 15% 8.62
MBRX 10% 7.52
MNTA 20% 15.73
NRGN 10% 5.95
SGXP 10% 3.50
$100 to the winner's charity. Mine is back to Alpha Project.
alphaproject.org
Some are picked by the SI herd, and some from SI cliques, and a few dark horses that are almost (how many are picking BCRX, SGXP and NRGN aside from me? One each?) my own to power my portfolio away from the herd if they work.
Brief rationale . . .
All of these companies will have significant news flow, if not binary events, during the year.
BCRX If bird flu takes off again, this will, too. The rest of the pipe looks solid.
COLY Now at all time lows despite no obvious setback; late stage pipe advancing should drive value at least somewhat as products get closer to NDAs.
CRME CV drug looks promising, with data coming relatively early in the year. Last year, I tried to "back end load" my portfolio for a finishing sprint with AGIX and CVTX. They rewarded me by pushing their data release into 07. Probably just as well, as failure is likely in both ARISE and MERLIN.
IDIX In vivo & in vitro models of HCV aren't very good, and ribavirin interactions predicted by them won't show up in humans, IMO. Data soon. That, and possible "creative solutions" to save the highest dose of their HCV drug should regenerate interest and value in what is considered to be the company's biggest potential moneymaker. Add to that the ongoing demotion of VX-950 from miracle drug to merely very good drug. But IDIX' HBV drug may justify the current price on its own.
MBRX Looking over the shoulders of other biofreaks on this one.
MNTA I think everyone knows about this one. I think the current round of patent litigation will resolve in their favor. Although ANOTHER appeal to be expected? How many times can a case be appealed and remanded? Anyhow, the next appeal will have even lower odds than this one, so if there's a lower court win, the stock shouldn't give up all gains while the FDA uncertainty lingers.
NRGN Mostly for the VR1 program, which may be best in class, in the lead, and which seems well protected IP-wise. They have good looking, but early sleep and obesity programs. The former is a crowded market, even without Indiplon, but the data do make NRGN's entry look like a possible improvement that could take share. I'm unclear on their partnering strategy, but all in all, the pipe is undervalued, and news flow may demonstrate and correct that in 07.
SGXP Fallen angel/value play. Down hard after in-licensed Troxatyl whiffed this year. Focus is now on next generation Gleevec. CML patients often develop resistance to Gleevec, so the race is on to find drugs that deal with the new mutants. The leading drugs in the race do so poorly compared to the SGXP entry. NVS, the maker of Gleevec, apparently agrees, and is backing SGXP, in spite of having an internal program of its own. The SGXP entry is mid-pack, but probably will have the best efficacy, and visibility on this should start to show up in the stock price in 07.
Honorable mentions (considered, but didn't make the cut):
ANSV Pain program looks good to me and my nurse/wife, but rkrw and his nurse disagree on real world acceptance. I don't know his nurse, so we'll call that a draw. That rkrw can out-biotech me three ways from Sunday is well known, so this didn't make the cut. He mentioned he didn't like management; whereas I am not well enough acquainted to make a call on that aspect. Except that a few are left over from the failed Corgentech, from which Anesiva arose via reverse merger. Formerly AlgoRx.
ARQL I was thinking that ARQ-501 combo data this coming year would be pretty good, but other respected biofreaks don't seem to agree, and are more interested in earlier stage programs. Maybe next year.
DSCO and ENCY Both very binary with ongoing regulatory stumbles. DSCO hung up on manufacturing, was supposed to have had an FDA meeting in the last week or two. That should be quite material, but we've heard nada. They would own the market if they can get approved, IMO. ENCY . . . does the FDA really want another trial? Will competing drug from GILD/MYOG really get through the regulatory process without a hitch? I own some ENCY, and am considering DSCO, but they are dicey; you start to wonder about management's ability to cross the finish line.
DVSA Solid here, I think, but not explosive, unless oil prices double again due to some catastrophic Middle Eastern event, such as revolution in Saudia Arabia. In that case, their enzymes used in ethanol production could be addressing a much bigger market op. DVSA is only barely a biotech now, anyway.
MOGN Generic competition looms. It is probably overestimated, and it is probably priced in, but the cloud won't go away until the end of the year.
NKTR Many say that Exubera will never amount to much, and early scrips bear that out. Pfizer will begin marketing to a wider audience of doctors early in the year, so we'll see soon enough. But are they doing the heavy lifting for the fast followers with better devices?
RNVS Fallen angel/value play. Imploded to less than cash on Cerovive failure in stroke. Everything else is very early. They also have a VR1 program, but I doubt it's better than NRGN's, and it's farther behind. With a lot of cash, they may elect to burn some before trying to partner. Maybe next year.
Cheers, Tuck |
