Tj,
You are putting way too much weight on the long term costs of the war, with regards to war injuries. Even one casualty or crippling permanent injury is one too many, but at the rate things are going I don't see it being a big economic factor as you seem to believe.
There have been roughly 1000 deaths per year for the last three years, and that is 3000 too many, but 45,000 die on our highways EVERY YEAR, year after year. And of course all these highway accidents cause a vast number of serious permanent injuries, in fact I don't know any family untouched by highway death or injury. But this has been going on for many decades. As Iraq is likely to be a one time event of limited duration I just don't see it like you do.
Our local National Guard unit, nearly 200 men, just returned from a years duty in Iraq and thankfully there was not even a MINOR injury suffered by anyone this tour. They were in the north, north of Mosul somewhere. A few have gone back there already, but to work in the private sector, but in the north where it is safe.
Here is what I believe is likely to happen there: The Kurdish area in the north is already pretty secure and has apparently established strong alliances with Israel. Maybe after a last effort this next year the US will draw down to about 40,000 troops total, mostly in the Kurdish region and a contingent left inside the "Green Zone" and of course a force will remain in the three big new bases in the western desert.
And soon there will be oil flowing from Mosul to Haifa in the recommissioned pipeline.
Slagle |
