If you like that gossipy stuff, you might like this site as well:
defamer.com
Its not the gossip I like, its the way the guy describes it that has me laughing my ass off.
BTW did you know that Utah had the second fastest appreciation in housing prices in the nation during 2006?
Look at a map for directions to home prices
By Kenneth R. Harney
Syndicated Columnist
Is real estate heating up, cooling down, headed for a deeper freeze or just hanging in there despite the challenges?
Pick your own theory, but the latest federal report on home price appreciation offers support for each of those scenarios.
The third-quarter house-price index compiled by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) examined changes under way in 275 of the largest metropolitan markets. Unlike other studies, the index survey tracks actual value shifts in millions of existing houses whose mortgages are owned or included in securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
Now to the four scenarios: Yes, real estate is heating up. You have to be in the right markets, of course, but there are several dozen hot spots spread around the country.
Take Bend, Ore., where house values appreciated at a stunning 30.7 percent during the 12 months ended Oct. 1, the survey shows. No dramatic bust or correction going on there. Or in Myrtle Beach, S.C.; 21.7 percent; Salt Lake City, 20.4 percent; or El Paso, Texas, 18.6 percent.
Overall, 37 metropolitan markets saw average home-appreciation rates of 15 percent or more during the 12 months covered by the survey, and 16 states had average gains topping 10 percent.
If that's not hot, it's at least warm — exceptionally for a post-boom correction. All these local markets continue to defy the gloom-and-doom predictions of the real-estate bears.
The fastest-appreciating states for home prices this past year? Would you believe Idaho (average 17.5 percent gain), Utah (17.4 percent), Oregon (16.9 percent) and Arizona (16.4 percent).
Everybody knows about the second scenario: Real estate is cooling. The third-quarter index documented that.
The average appreciation rate nationwide dropped to 0.86 percent during the quarter. That's chillier than it has been since mid-1998.
In five states — Michigan, New York, Rhode Island, New Hampshire and Massachusetts — the quarterly rate actually went slightly negative.
It's unusual for an entire state to show net price depreciation for a quarter, but houses in economically hard-pressed Michigan slipped below zero for the entire 12 months of the study, depreciating by an average 0.6 percent.
The deeper-freeze scenario? There's less hard evidence in the latest federal statistics, but there certainly are some sobering trends in two categories of real-estate markets:
In the first are those areas where the regional economy has been struggling, corporate layoffs and plant closings have pushed unemployment higher, and there is little in the way of immediate relief.
Examples include large swaths of the industrial Midwest — Canton, Cleveland and Akron, Ohio; for instance, and Detroit — each of which saw quarterly net depreciation slightly below 1 percent.
Other areas fared even worse, such as Lima, Ohio, where the average house lost 3 percent of its market value during the quarter.
Burlington, N.C., took the heaviest quarterly hit: 3.4 percent depreciation.
In the second category are the boom-era shooting stars where excess appreciation has burned itself out and prices are flat at best: Half of California markets saw quarterly declines in values in the latest survey.
San Diego and San Francisco both registered 0.2 percent depreciation for the quarter; Santa Rosa and Santa Barbara, Calif.; and Sarasota, Fla.; (all down 1.2 percent for the quarter); Nassau and Suffolk counties on New York's Long Island (down 0.7 percent); Boston (down 0.4 percent) and Barnstable, Mass. (2.1 percent decline).
Without question, the most impressively documented scenario is that many large metropolitan markets — including some that had high gains during the boom years — are still hanging in there and registering net appreciation, albeit at lower rates.
Examples include Fort Lauderdale (2.6 percent gain for the quarter); Naples, Fla. (2.7 percent); Los Angeles (1.9 percent); metropolitan Washington, D.C. (0.71 percent); New York City and its northern New Jersey suburbs (0.72 percent); Seattle (3.7 percent); Miami-Miami Beach (3.7 percent); Chicago (5.2 percent); Orlando (1.6 percent); and San Antonio (2.5 percent).
The takeaway message from these seemingly contradictory patterns: Even in a general national cooling trend, the performances of individual local real-estate markets are governed by the fundamentals of their own economies. There is no single scenario at work here.
But there is positive news overall: In the words of Patrick Lawler, chief economist for OFHEO, "The transition from sizzling markets to normal or weak markets has been orderly so far, and recent drops in interest rates lessen the likelihood that precipitous changes will occur."
To see the full third-quarter house-price index, go to www.ofheo.gov.
seattletimes.nwsource.com |
