Here is my take on uranium, Chuck. I meant to do some comprehensive DD but other things happened lately that prevented me.
I do not know Australia (intend to study the ALZ situation) or the former USSR. Africa, I know a little. In the US it has mostly been New Mexico, SE Utah, Colorado, and Wyoming. In Canada originally (1940's) it was the narrow veins of pitchblende of the NWT, then a little bit from the Bancroft area of Ont., then the big discoveries in Elliot Lake, Ont in the 1950's. Elliot boomed, US stopped adding to stockpile, Elliot went bust, Civil demand and Elliot boomed in the 1970's, big discoveries in Sask. and again Elliot went bust. During the 70's there was a world wide search for uran. by Canadians, French and Germans. Sask.,Quebec, Labrador and Africa were prominent until Sask hit big and put everyone else out of business. I do not recall any other major discoveries in Canada.
A few years back I posted (somewhere on SI)how the psychology changed after the Sask discoveries. From mining a few pounds per ton in Elliot, underground, from relatively flat laying beds (6 to 20 feet thick)of quartz pebble conglomerate containing pyrite and U3O8 to mainly open pitting 200 to 600 lbs per ton in Sask from large fractures in the Athabasca sandstones that had been filled with the uranium. Main problem in Sask was protection from radiation so only a little bit of the ore could be exposed at one time. Anyways, U3O8 was $7 a lb, there was a big surplus and I sure did not care about anything else.
At $72 per pound and people predicting large shortages, time to look again! A buddy in the mine supply business told me he was seriously considering moving from SW Montana to SW Colorado. "I am spending all my time there anyway!" "The uranium boom is on!"
I do not have the names however. Others are trying in situ leaching in New Mexico, and some are having trouble with permitting. (I can understand why!).
What I am leading up to is that Elliot closed down with all that ore still in place. The beds are large and consistent. the ore is proven (not 43-101 compliant), but 100's of millions of dollars were spent by reputable companies on concentrators, undg. devel., townsites etc., based on their drill results. Years of production followed, confirming the interpretation of the exploration work.
Pele Mountain (GEM) now controls most of the ore previously owned by Rio Algom. (56 millions pounds of U3O8) The excitement of exploration and the uncertainty of exploration is eliminated. Permitting and bonding may be a psychological hurdle. Anyway a month or so ago I figured I would jump on the U bandwagon thru GEM at 30 cents. Shortly it jumped from 35 to 49 one am, the NR was some BS about possible pgms in the Sudbury off-set dikes so I bailed as I figured it had gone too fast on little of substance. I think it ended the day at 68 or thereabouts. I kept looking for weakness to get back in and bot to-day at $1.15. I will probably buy some more in the am as it closed at $1.35 and I figure it is being discovered. My attitude is why buy an explorer when you can buy U3O8 in the ground in an area where consistency has been proven. I see some people getting excited by intermittent intersections of similar grade over short lengths. Not for me!
Just thinking costs at Elliot were about $30 per pound in 1980. How does that work out in 2007 dollars? Where are the economists??
the other uranium play is CMK which I have been in and out of for coal and gold many times and seems always been frustrated by poor promo and SP falling. CMK got the former Cogema properties in Madagascar which had about 80,000 metres of drilling. I do not really have a feel for what they found with all that drilling, but have to conclude that they would have stopped long before 80,000 m if they were shooting blanks. CMK sold it to an AIM company (UEP) for 40% interest in UEP (RTO). UEP has not moved, Cline has gone from 30's to 50 on Friday and from 50 to 65 to-day. I bot some more in low 50's today because of the momo. Pinetree buying some. Maybe UEP is the play. How do you buy on AIM??
Intend to look into Tom's CAU as well.
FWIW!!! comments encouraged! together maybe we can pick the winners.
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