slagle, for a global investor, usa has been a bad bet for 6 years running
from here on out, i figure 50/50 solution, meaning 50% cut in usa asset prices, and 50% devaluation of usa currency
as a global investor, those two headwinds are difficult to overcome for any amount allocated to usd space
we must aim to earn a real return after accounting for purchasing power loss of monetary schema
reality = housing inflated, along with commodities, and even groceries and education/health services, because of monetary inflation, resulting in S&P500 up by 13%, and USD down by 12%, even as US wages stay still, and more production move off shore
folks point to oil dropping from 70 back to 60, but fail to indicate that oil went from 20 to 60
the dollar is already crashing, 40% so far, against euro 50% against gold the dollar not crashing against yen and yuan is not good news
so, now that housing is about to take a serious tumble, ripping away the asset value backing the growing debt on the current and future generations, where is the good news
8% dividend less a withholding tax, and less a currency debacle just doesn't get the necessary job done
perhaps best to wait for a clearing event of appropriate and substantive size
now, there may be case to be made for a course of dangerous action, to do the usd carry trade, by shorting a bunch of usa shares (subprime, shopping, etc) and either buying a bunch of other usa shares (close end funds, utilities, prison reits, pawnshops, war suppliers) and china/india shares |
