My own opinion is that WS analysts spend far more time coming up with catchy names for their research than on the actual research itself.
Besides many research pundits seem to assume their readers are morons - an additional increase in ASP might be detrimental - or IOW boxmakers might just try to cut back though they have to meet Vista requirements going forward
...but growth will decelerate significantly on year due to price erosion rearing its ugly head, according to iSuppli.
DRAM revenues in 2007 will be exceeded only by those in 1995, when sales reached a record US$40.8 billion, said Nam Hyung Kim, principal analyst with iSuppli. On the other hand, revenue will only rise by 11.3% for the year, far off the pace from the whopping 33.6% expansion in 2006, he added.
Price plunge to slow DRAM revenue growth in 2007, says iSuppli
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Press release, January 4; Esther Lam, DigiTimes.com [Friday 5 January 2007]
DRAM market will reach a milestone in 2007 as it achieves the second-highest annual revenue level in its history, but growth will decelerate significantly on year due to price erosion rearing its ugly head, according to iSuppli.
DRAM revenues in 2007 will be exceeded only by those in 1995, when sales reached a record US$40.8 billion, said Nam Hyung Kim, principal analyst with iSuppli. On the other hand, revenue will only rise by 11.3% for the year, far off the pace from the whopping 33.6% expansion in 2006, he added.
iSuppli DRAM market forecast
Source: iSuppli, compiled by DigiTimes.com, January 2007
The main culprit for the revenue growth slowdown will be the return of normal price erosion, iSuppli explained. Last year, the global average selling price (ASP) declined by only 13%, far below the historical rate of a 30% annual decline. Pricing conditions will follow normal patterns in 2007, with the DRAM ASP expected to decline by 31% during the year.
ASPs in 2006 were propped up by memory makers' efforts to diversify their product lines into specialty DRAM designed for non-PC applications. So although DRAM bit production growth was at an ample 52% in 2006, non-PC DRAM supply growth was much higher than PC DRAM supply growth, resulting in greater price stability in the largest application for the memory.
Last year, several memory makers shifted production away from DRAM to NAND flash, but NAND market growth will decelerate in 2007, slowing DRAM makers' moves to shift further capacity. In addition to this, seven new 12-inch DRAM wafer fabs will ramp up production next year. All this will boost DRAM availability and push down pricing.
While iSuppli foresees less shifting of production from DRAM to NAND in 2007, allocation of manufacturing between the two memory types will be the major swing factor determining the health of the memory market in 2007.
For the NAND flash market, iSuppli does not expect any big momentum changes in 2007. However, upside NAND demand potentially could be a wild-card factor, such as new sales resulting from Apple Computer's upcoming flash-based personal media players (PMPs) and its long-awaited handset. However, iSuppli does not believe these factors will alter NAND market momentum in 2007. With revenue growth slowing in 2007, conditions are shifting in favor of DRAM buyers, giving them more leverage in price negotiations compared to 2006. |
