Re: "An American withdrawal before Iraq can, in the words of the president, “govern itself, sustain itself, and defend itself” would be a strategic defeat for American interests, with potentially catastrophic consequences both in the region and beyond."
Nah.
IMO, it's more likely to be the START of a great VICTORY for American and Western long-term strategic interests, goals and aspirations.
As far as 'catastrophic consequences for the region', I believe it would produce catastrophic consequences for the extremists on BOTH sides of the Sunni/Shiite religious divide, as well as for their State sponsors and supporters.
A 'mega-regional, inter-Islamic civil war' would be VERY GOOD for the long-term interests of United States, of Israel, and of Western civilization, Democracy and pluralism in general.
How could it be otherwise?
As long as the West truly stays above the fray (not trying to meddle and favor Sunni over Shia, or Shia over Sunni, or Arab over Persian, or Persian over Arab), then it will be an inter-Islamic struggle --- weakening extremists on BOTH SIDES (just as it did in the earlier, decade-long Iran/Iraq Gulf War... wherein one million people died, and the extremist rehimes on both sides each came close to falling, and *both* lost huge amounts of support among their peoples... most of which never came back).
In the short-term --- extremists would be pitted against each other, diverted from attacking our guys by the exigencies of their NEW CRISIS, the *expanded* inter-regional civil war in Iraq.
In the mid-term --- oil prices would fall globally as BOTH sides pumped full-out to try to keep their heads above water and finance their war efforts. (Saudi Arabia has *already* warned that they would pump full-out to lower oil prices to try to weaken the Iranians... deprive them of the money they would need to fight the Sunnis. Saudi Arabia has ALSO stated that it would step up it's support for the Sunni battles against the Shia, and so would many/most of the other Gulf Sunnis.)
In the long-term --- new, more stable political boundaries would be drawn through the territory of old 'Iraq', but both sets of extremists would lose massive amounts of their people's blood and national wealth, most likely disgracing the extremism causes and their allure on the region's streets, likely giving an opening to a new political respect for moderation and pluralism, possibly toppling both the corrupt Saud Monarchs, their extremist Whabbist Sunni supporters, and the Iranian Shiite Theocracy. Quite possibly not only will more Western-thinking governments emerge in the region... but the long-overdue Islamic Reformation will finally emerge.
(Just as it did in Western Europe centuries ago - birthed in the wasteful blood of generations of inter-religious civil warfare.)
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Message 23137228 |
