page 2
The world's energy needs will rise 51 percent by 2030 because of industrialization and population growth, the International Energy Agency in Paris predicts. Add up the carbon-dioxide emissions from all the oil and coal plants that would be built to meet that need, and scientists see an environmental nightmare in the making.
Natural gas is a cleaner fuel for making electricity, but the price has soared. Hydropower from dams has largely topped out at less than 20 percent of the world's electric supply. Alternatives such as solar, thermal and wind power remain a tiny contributor in most countries and would require dramatic economic changes to become substantial sources. To many policymakers, that leaves nuclear.
A supervisor inspects one of two nuclear power plants under construction in Bulgaria, this one near Belene. The country has four operational nuclear plants. (By Petar Petrov -- Associated Press)
In Britain, such calculations led to a striking reversal in policy. In 2003, a government white paper called nuclear power an unattractive option; in May, Prime Minister Tony Blair declared that nuclear power is "back on the agenda with a vengeance."
Blair argued that the technology is a way to ensure British energy security in an unstable world and to combat global climate change -- a top priority of his government. Twenty-three nuclear plants now provide almost 20 percent of the United Kingdom's power, and Blair has called for a new mix of non-polluting sources, including nuclear plants and renewable alternatives.
"In the future, energy security will be almost as important as defense," Blair said in October.
Similar jitters about the reliability -- and price -- of traditional fuels are adding to the rush to nuclear. Japan, as host to the 1997 Kyoto conference that mandated a global reduction in greenhouse gases, is building three and planning 10 more nuclear plants in the next decade. Its plans are spurred by Japan's wariness over neighboring China's campaign to lock up oil and gas supply contracts with foreign countries.
"The timing of Kyoto Protocol coming into effect and the timing of China endeavoring in its mission to secure natural resources in the world coincide," said Tadao Yanase, director of nuclear energy policy at Japan's Agency for Natural Resources and Energy.
China's plans call for 15 to 30 new nuclear plants by 2020 and even more conventional plants, most of them coal-fired. Its researchers are working on creating smaller, less-expensive nuclear plants. India, with 16 nuclear plants, is building seven more plants and has been promised U.S. help to triple its collection by 2020.
Some nuclear construction will merely keep the status quo. The first big wave of nuclear plants, built in the 1970s and 1980s, are near their planned obsolescence; six have been shut down. Regulators in the United States have extended licenses to 60 years, but other countries are replacing aging plants to make sure the nuclear component of their base supply does not disappear.
Proliferation of nuclear material remains a worry. And another disaster like the Soviet Union's at Chernobyl in 1986 or a near-disaster like that at Pennsylvania's Three Mile Island in 1979 would likely freeze the plans for nuclear construction.
"The industry is sticking its head in the sand," said Jim Riccio, a policy analyst at anti-nuclear Greenpeace in Washington. "They haven't gotten close to addressing safety or security."
Because nuclear fission emits no greenhouse gases, some environmental groups have grudgingly concluded that nuclear power is preferable to global warming. Others still argue that aggressive conservation and a dramatic increase in solar, wind, thermal and biofueled production can meet future electric needs. |
