McCain, Giuliani Fare Well Vs. Top Dems, While Edwards Might Be Toughest Rival
BY JED GRAHAM
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 1/5/2007
A new IBD/TIPP poll gives Republican front-runners Sen. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani an edge over top Democratic contenders and shows that John Edwards might be their toughest opponent.
In a potential presidential matchup, McCain led the former one-term senator from North Carolina and 2004 vice presidential nominee by 44% to 43% but had a more comfortable margin over the two Democratic heavyweights expected to run. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton trailed McCain 48% to 41% while Illinois Sen. Barack Obama was down 48% to 36%.
In a matchup against Giuliani, the former New York mayor, Clinton and Edwards both trailed by 5%, (48%-43% and 47%-42%, respectively) while Obama lagged by 13% (49%-36%). But as in the matchup against McCain, Edwards showed a bit better ability than the former first lady to pull in Republicans and independents.
Edwards Strong
While Clinton and Obama have been cast as the Goliaths of the Democratic field, "when you look at the numbers, they're not the strongest in the general election," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.
The poll of 951 adults for IBD by TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, was conducted Jan. 2-4.
"After six weeks of Hillary-Obama, Hillary-Obama, what you have is just further confirmation that Edwards is a major player in all this," said independent pollster John Zogby.
Recent polls of Democratic voters in Iowa and New Hampshire also have shown significant support for Edwards. He's spent a lot of time in those early primary states.
While the predictive power of these early national polls is limited, they are nevertheless significant, Zogby said.
"We're in the midst of the race already, and early positioning is the first primary," he said. "Candidates have to be armed with numbers that show either a positive reality or a positive potential" in order to raise money, attract the best consultants and build a strong staff in early-voting states.
Edwards has worked to win the support of liberal Democrats with his "two Americas" message that bemoans the plight of families that are not sharing in the nation's prosperity. He launched his campaign on Dec. 28 from the Katrina-devastated 9th Ward in New Orleans.
No Miss Independent
Despite Clinton's perceived shift to the center as a senator, she garners less support from independents and Republicans.
In the matchup vs. McCain, Edwards polled 11.9% among Republicans and 38.4% among independents compared with 5.4% and 37% for Clinton.
Against Giuliani, Edwards had support of 10.6% of Republicans and 39% of independents compared with 8% and 37.3% for Clinton.
Whether those numbers reflect impressions of Clinton from her days as first lady or misperceptions of Edwards' political bent isn't clear. Polling by Rasmussen Reports finds that 41% of Americans see Edwards as politically moderate and 39% say he is liberal. Those numbers place him to the political right of Clinton in the minds of Americans, according to Rasmussen.
Impressions of where the various candidates stand are "still forming," Miringoff said.
The Obama Factor
While Obama fared worse in the IBD/TIPP poll than Clinton, the percentage of undecided voters regarding him was high, Zogby noted. That suggests the first-term senator, despite his recent wave of publicity, is still unfamiliar to many Americans. But he is becoming known in the early voting states.
The huge crowds that came out to see Obama on his recent trip to New Hampshire and at his book signings aren't a media creation, Zogby said.
"It's very, very real," he said. "There's electricity there."
All of the Democrats were favored over ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by double-digit margins.
Giuliani enjoyed the strongest party loyalty of all the candidates, noted TIPP President Raghavan Mayur.
Both McCain and Giuliani had a significant edge among independents, even against Edwards. That may prove critical in 2008.
"This election will be won in the center, not on the fringes," Zogby said. |
