So one might think the author and/or the editor of the article would conclude that Grandey of Cameco believes that if oil was $30 a barrel or less, the price of uranium would not be affected. I think Grandey given this possibility would say something a bit different.
Grandey was talking about the present situation where oil is $60 give or take. A ten or twenty dollar temporary fluctuation in the price of oil is unlikely to cause changes in the price of uranium. That makes sense over the short term.
On the other hand if oil maintains current price levels for another year or two, a lot of energy conservation structural changes are going to occur in infrastructure and the economy, and a lot of new technological breakthroughs on alternate oil recovery, non traditional oil sources and alternate energy generation methods will be implemented and/or discovered. As these changes occur the price of oil and/or its competitors will fall as demand slackens. There are many examples in the recent past that support this argument.
Then the decision becomes, do we invest multi-billions and decades of time building new nuclear reactors,...or spend tens of millions and a few months building natural gas and oil fired peak turbines that we can place physically close to the demand? Less reactors = less demand for U3O8 = less pressure on price of Uranium.
Even as we type the major uses of energy are being affected by the price of oil and gas.
Heat: new building codes are demanding higher r values in roof and walls, much more energy efficient doors and windows and tighter air infiltration standards of construction.
Lighting: LED's and high efficiency fluorescents replacing energy pig tungsten filament.
Electronics and Appliances: New standards being implemented,...new televisions, fridges, washers, dryers, hot water heaters etc., have cut energy usage to fractions of decade old appliances.
Cars and trucks: people demanding and getting more energy efficient models,..if not from the big 3 then from Japan.
Nothing is forever. |
