Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MLNM) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MLNM)

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To: Icebrg who wrote (2789)	1/8/2007 9:40:37 AM
From: tom pope	of 3044

Merrill, maintains neutral- though they actually sound rather more pessimistic than "neutral": ‘06 Velcade in-line; expecting no bottom line growth in ‘07 Millennium pre-announced 2006 Velcade sales of $220mn, matching its prior guidance. In view of 2007 guidance, we lowered our ’07 Velcade sales and EPS estimates modestly pending the company’s 8 am conf. call and 4Q06 results to be reported on Feb. 8 in conjunction with the Merrill Lynch Global Pharma, Medtech and Biotech conference in NY. Maintain Neutral. Guiding to ’07 Velcade sales of $240-260mn, flat expenses Millennium expects 2007 U.S. Velcade sales to increase 9-18% to $240-260m and royalties on Integrilin and ex-US Velcade sales to increase to $140-150mn (up about 5-13% vs our ’06 est. of $133mn). It expects basically flat operating expenses of about $425mn (ex-options expenses) and non-GAAP net income of $10-20mn (lower than our prior est. of $24mn). Lowering Velcade and EPS estimates in ‘07 We lowered our ’07 Velcade estimate to $247mn from $258mn and maintained our royalties estimate at $144mn and our operating expenses estimate (exoptions) at $428mn. This lowers our ’07 net income estimate to $16mn from $24mn and our EPS estimate (ex-options) modestly to $0.05 from $0.07. Street consensus for ’07 EPS is $0.13. Maintain Neutral We maintain our Neutral rating as we expect no bottom line progress in 2007, unless additional revenue sources can be found and expenses can be reduced. We expect any Velcade sales growth in ’07 to be likely due mainly to price increases as opposed to demand as it faces significant competition.

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