Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 178.83

+0.3%

1:16 PM EST

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To: golfinvestor who wrote (147509)	1/9/2007 11:16:05 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (3) of 152472

GI - the wireless industry has changed today. There is an 800 lb gorilla on teh block. How many handsets doe we think APPL will sell in cal07? 1. For every appl phone that sells it is one less cdma or w-cdma phone that will be sold. This has got to cause all numbers to be lowered from handsets manufacturers and the Q. 2. ASPs on all cdma and w-cdma handsets are going to have to come down by maybe over time as much as 40% - 50% to compete with an appl sale. While we on this thread think that cdma of both flavours are the best the average handset buyer out there could care less. He amy even believe that Edge is the best. If you offer him a cdma or w-cdma handset at half the price of an appl phone it probably won't be enough to persuade him. 3. This IS like model T fords just made a huge comeback!!! Edge is about to become THE wireless system for handsets. Edge has beaten cdma. It is incredible but it is reality. I bet whoever is making the edge chip cut the most unbelievable deal with appl. 4. The ones with the biggest worry are NOK, MOT and the Koreans.Q has been relegated to a side show as the stage is now for giant world class players and Q is not in their league. Shame it almost made it but I don't think any of us dreamed it would be possible for the iphone to be edge based. It is a brilliant move by appl and shows the strength of their franchise. 5. Anyone want to guess how many handsets appl will sell in cal 07? My guess is they could start yr 1 by a number equal pro-rata to double the number of ipods they sold in their best year maybe three or four times. Don't forget this is V1.01 of the iphone and appl usually do a good job of improving their offer very quickly. 6. Whatever the number is in 5. above it has to be used to reduce the sales of the Q as well as all the other major handset vendors. That added to the reduction in ASPs is it is going to change forecasts materially. Downgrades are on their way and they are going to be brutal but not for appl!!!!! 7. I'd like to see the analysts revised estimaes before I give my guesses for price but I have to say now that I don't see $40s again. What I do think is that the clock is running for PJ and my guess is that after the summer unless something very positive shows up on the legal front he will be under severe presure to step down. 8. aapl over $90 and it hasn'even got going. Poor old Q down again. Best, L Best, L

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