TA from aj:<< Posted by: ajtj99
In reply to: None Date:1/9/2007 9:03:18 PM
Post #of 97213
The more I look at things tonight, the more it looks like we are getting a lot of H&S tops on indices and individual issues.
If we have indeed seen the highs on the SPX, I think the S&P may rise to around 1422 or so, but that may cap it next week. There's an outside chance of 1427, but I'm afraid the next step after that will be a drop to 1388 SPX by the end of January or early February. Ideally we'd get a rise to 1405 or 1407 for op-ex in February, then a drop to 1362-1364 in the end of Feb.
That would ideally end the first leg of a 3-wave correction out of the 1432 highs.
If we follow that with a 3-wave move up to 1398 SPX for op-ex in March and maybe dragging into the end of March, it would set up a swift brother move down from 1398 to 1324-1330 SPX by the beginning of May, ideally bottoming around May 8.
Ideally we'd have nested inverse H&S bottoms formed by the drop, with the initial target out of a 1330 SPX low a 1405 neckline. The end of June would work best for this high. A drop to 1378 for early July/op-ex would work.
The inverse h&S pattern would have a target of 1480 SPX. It would likely have a stop at 1432 and consolidate between 1432 and 1405, forming still another inverse h&S pattern that would target 1535 SPX.
The index would ideally break up past above in early September, moving to the 1480 target (with a possible over-shoot to 1500).
Ideally that level would be reached in early November, and the SPX would do a 3-wave correction to maybe 1434, then rise in late Dec/early Jan. 2008 to 1553 SPX.
Anyway, this is just an exercise and will likely be a waste of time when we look back. However, I always like to have a plan of action laid out.
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AJTJ's Post-Lobotomy Market Thoughts and Charts--
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