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Biotech / Medical : Genentech (NYSE:DNA) formerly known as (NYSE:GNE)
DNA 8.400-5.7%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST
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To: zeta1961 who wrote (127)1/10/2007 10:19:47 AM
From: tom pope  Read Replies (1) of 250
 
Merrill, going out on a bit of a limb before earnings:

Revenue Upside Likely:
DNA is reporting after the close today. According to NDC data, we expect
Rituxan and Lucentis to beat estimates and Avastin sales to come in-line with
consensus, but we expect Herceptin and Tarceva to miss projections. Overall, we
anticipate solid revenues with total potential sales upside of $25mn - $120mn.

Rituxan & Lucentis Should Beat Estimates:
We expect Rituxan and Lucentis to beat estimates. We and the Street project US
Rituxan sales of $541mn while NDC data suggests sales of $544mn - $580mn.
For Lucentis, we project sales of $197mn vs. consensus of $159mn while NDC
data suggests potential upside to $225mn.

Avastin Should Be In-Line:
We expect US Avastin sales to meet consensus but the whisper number may
have crept up recently. Our $452mn est. is below consensus of $481mn but NDC
data indicates Avastin sales of $464mn - $501mn, which suggests an in-line 4Q.

Herceptin & Tarceva Could Miss:
We expect Herceptin and Tarceva to miss estimates. Our Herceptin estimate of
$318mn is below consensus of $330mn. NDC data suggests Herceptin sales of
$304mn - $324mn, which suggests a below consensus number. For Tarceva, we
project sales of $103.5mn vs. consensus of $111mn while NDC data suggests
likely downside to $103mn – $104mn.
Expect Product Sales Upside of $25 - $120 MM:
According to NDC data for key products, we anticipate sales upside of $25mn -
$120mn. We expect weak Herceptin and Tarceva sales to be more than offset by
strong Rituxan and Lucentis sales
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