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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising

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To: A.J. Mullen who wrote (9904)	1/10/2007 8:29:53 PM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (1) of 10280

On Rxs, the life of an Rx for one patient is something like: NRx Refill Refill Refill NRx Refill Refill Refill where the ratio can be every other month if doctor wants to see patient often (probable in pysche cases) or 1 NRx for 5 Refills for chronic non-sleeper without co-morbidities and hassled doctor. Also in NRxs are new patients to the class of drugs, switchers from another drug in the class, and switchers from other classes of drugs. Hope that helps. A few thoughts on the presentation: Growth in 2006 was a full year of Lunesta and beginning MDI with surprising upside on Xop. Growth in 2007 is probably going to be MDI and Brovana with flat Lunesta and flat Xop (up first 3 quarters and down the rest) Growth in 2008 would likely be continued MDI and Brovana, Europe (if it happens) Lunesta and rev losses in Xop 2009 would be full year of lunesta in Europe 2010 would add Japan Clearly you need something in the 2008/2009 timeframe to keep growth happening and to offset Medicare Xopenex decision later this year and perhaps generics shortly after that. Jon

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