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Technology Stocks : Nokia Corp. (NOK)

NOK 6.910

-0.9%

3:59 PM EST

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To: sisuman who wrote (4534)	1/10/2007 10:33:00 PM
From: sisuman	Read Replies (2) of 9255

Panic in the market - sell Nokia??? Have investors gone nuts in the past few days over (1) MOT's warning; and (2) Apples iphone announcement? Re (1) - Per Credit Suisse negarive assessment They assume that Nokia will sell about 106 million units in Q4 or +20% v. Q3. (and compared to MOT's 22% unit growth). They are also assuming that NOK's ASP will drop about 8% - same as MOT's. And NOK's margin will drop to 14.6% v. 15.1% in Q4, 2005. The overall result then is for NOK's revenue, and net income, to increase only about 12.4%. So NOK's $0.29 for Q3 becomes about $.32 for Q4 - below the $0.34 consensus expectation. Seems way off-base. (2) - You have to give Jobs credit for his ability to command attention for any new product direction - but entering the new field of cellphones he expectes to sell 10 million annually be 2008, despite a $500 price? Is Cingular going to subsidize the price and offer it for $200 or so? Nokia has a base of 850 cell phone buyers, with another 100+ million to be added in Q4. So in 2008 it will have a brand base in excess of 1 billion people. And having begun the sale of music based phones relatively recently, it has already sold some 70 million. Are Apple and itunes that big worldwide? Will iphone sales really hammer NOK"s future profits in a big way? Lots of Apple risk. Looks to me like this is an excellent entry point to buy NOK stock! Sisuman

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