David,
I have a long position in Oracle because of the database, and the applications and consulting business combined with Oracle's long and consistent record of growth. Personally I dont buy the NC story much, to me that would be icing on the cake. (there's a BIG argument in here that I wont even get into, just look back in this thread)
Whatever happens, NC or no NC, businesses will need applications and databases. There aren't that many big companies with world wide capability selling these.
There are IBM, Oracle, and .....
Sybase? maybe, for specialised or niche applications.
Informix? Ooops, just dissapearing down the toilet.
And a few niche players, but no one with the spread of IBM and Oracle. And Oracle runs on everything. Unix, NT, Sun, Sequent etc etc etc
Stir in year 2000, and you have, IMHO, a solid winner. Not a 100% a year winner, not a 100% in 2 weeks winner, but a steady, consistent 30%+ a year. So if you have a place in your portfolio for that, then I would recommend Oracle, along with MSFT and Intel.
Take a look at the 5 year chart. What else do I need to say.
If I was investing now, for the next 12- 24 months say, I personally would take a chance at putting in an order at 35 or 36 and hope I catch a dip in the next 2 or 3 weeks. That is just about rock bottom. The stock has tested 40 a few times in the past few weeks and I believe will be back there by end of year, never to see the 30's again (until the next split!). Since I dont intend to sell before 2001 minimum I'm not too bothered by these swings, irritating though they can be at times.
This is probably a good time to buy, I think we will bimble along for a couple of weeks before anything much happens.
One word of warning, Oracle is, IMHO, very volatile for such a large and solid company. The stock appears to zoom up or down for no discernable reason. So dont be disconcerted by temporary downturns (or too upbeat about upturns!), in the long run, it all smooths out.
Up.
Good luck whatever you do,
Joe C |
