###The Spear Reprt boils down to two key views. One the techs are hot and will stay hot except a chance of short correction.(i am still buried in techs, down 4 ponts on 12k shares--the pain:)
Two, while they suspect crude may breal into below 50 next week the see energy sector to be NOW at one if the greatest BUYING OPPORTUNITIES in history.
First their caution on Techs etc, eventhough they are very bullish.
<<But Ripe for a Correction?
So, there are lots of reasons to be bullish and we've rejected most of the bearish arguments. But there is also one other bearish factor that we can't ignore. This is the rise of the market since mid-July on a trajectory that is as sharp as any since the beginning of the recovery in 2003, and longer than any rallies since the first in that series. While the Nasdaq exceeded the November high on Thursday, it is still sitting on an important trend line drawn through the tops since early '05 and is more than ripe for another multi-month correction like we've had four times so far in the last three years. Two of those corrections lasted more than two quarters each! There was no warning for any of them; no softness in any indicators that were convincing to anyone. In each case, immediately preceding the correction, the market was on a tear very similar to the one it is on right now, and everything looked pretty rosy. That surprise factor is what causes just enough panic to keep the correction going for a multi-month period. How soon could such a correction begin? As we said, the markets are sitting right on a likely reversal point at this time. If we plow through that with high volume, we could break out of the pattern we've been in for the last three years of rallies like this one ending in multi-month corrections, but don't count on it. Be careful out there!>>
Now crude/energy
<<In other words, using crude prices as an economic forecasting tool is grossly inappropriate in our view. Crude oil in the high $40's is not widely expected, but our analysis of the chart says a brief foray under $50 is a real possibility given the momentum of the current decline. Such an extreme move would present TSR subscribers with an historic buying opportunity in the leading Consensus integrated oils that we have highlighted in these pages over the last six months. **Do you have the stomach to buy the dip? We hope so.** Removing emotion from your investing decisions is probably the single most important thing you can do to generate wealth from the market.>>
i am moving in to this area nextsometime next week.
In spite of my PAIN in RYVNX , i still have 70% in cash to fight back. |
