Rogers Says Oil Will Rise to $100 After `Correction' (Update5)
By Wendy Pugh and Yasumasa Song
Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Oil will resume its march toward $100 a barrel after a ``correction,'' said Jim Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999.
``I'm just not smart enough to know how far down it will go and how long it will stay, but I do know that within the context of the bull market, oil will go over $100,'' Rogers said in a Tokyo interview. ``It will go over $150. Whether that is in 2009 or 2013, I don't have a clue, but I know it's going to happen.''
Crude oil in New York has fallen 33 percent to a 19-month low since it peaked at a record $78.40 a barrel in July. Rogers, author of ``Hot Commodities'', has said oil will keep rising because there hasn't been a major discovery for 30 years and economic growth in China and across Asia is driving up demand.
Rogers, 64, who created a series of commodities indexes and foresees a long-term bull market in oil, metals and grains, said he hadn't changed his positive view. The Rogers International Commodity Index, which more than doubled in the past five years, has dropped 13 percent in six months on a total return basis.
``When you have big bull markets, 50 percent corrections, or retractions, are normal,'' he said in an interview yesterday. ``It has often happened throughout history in a bull market.''
Oil for February delivery rose as much as 41 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $52.65 a barrel in New York today. The contract traded at $52.51 at 4:46 p.m. Tokyo time.
Lasting Correction
Rogers, in Tokyo to speak about commodities at an event organized by commodity futures trader Yutaka Shoji Co., said some corrections could last as long as two years, as happened to gold after a run-up in prices in the 1970s.
``Corrections go down long enough to scare everybody out and make sure they give up, and then they turn around,'' he said. ``We are in a secular bull market for commodities which has another decade or two to go.''
Crude oil will certainly rise above $100 a barrel before the bull market reaches an end, Rogers, who is chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., said in July after prices reached a record during fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
He said corn, wheat and nickel had performed strongly even as the weighting given to oil dragged down the overall Rogers International Commodity Index.
Rogers doesn't buy individual commodities on the advice of his lawyers. He said he recently bought the Rogers Agriculture Index to benefit from surging grain demand. The index has fallen 0.5 percent this year on a total return basis.
He said he favored investment in non-U.S. dollar currencies, and had bought airline shares.
``The only airline where I'm losing money in the last year is Japan Airlines,'' he said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Wendy Pugh in Tokyo at wpugh@bloomberg.net ; Yasumasa Song in Tokyo at ysong9@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: January 18, 2007 02:51 EST |
