No, I don't think we get a recession due to our debt problem any time soon. I think the most likely time period for a protracted recession will come after 2010, when Baby Boomers start retiring in droves. But I think that will be a long drawn out process and not as severe as everyone thinks, because I think Baby Boomers will continue to work much longer than anyone anticipates them to.
However, my main worry is for the long term future, that of my children. They are going to be saddled with this big mess that we're leaving them. I'll escape the consequences, but they won't. They won't ever get social security payments, despite them already paying into the system now. Their health care costs will be so expensive that they will have to be in the top 10% of wage earners just to be able to afford it. The dollar will be so weak, that inflation will be a fact of life for them, so their earnings power will decline measurably every year, even after accounting for raises. Yes, we're setting our children up for a big disaster and no one cares enough to do anything about it. Or even worse, they don't believe it's coming, because they come up with all sorts of false reasoning on why debt and deficits are no big deal, even as they spend income from social security and don't count the very real obligations that are accruing as part of that program. Nice job America! |
