Not a peep about how the June quarter is supposed to recover the shortfall AND MORE with a 25% gain.
You're correct : he gave guidance for two quarters at the same breath but the second portion was ignored.
Maybe he should not have mention June at all - just keep 'em in the dark. I don't think the selloff would have been any worse.
One analyst said "good luck" with the June ramp and one called it a parking lot - however there was also discussed the possibilty of $700 million quarter; unfortunately this good news is bad news as it fosters (once again) the cycle has peaked.
Newberry offered a lot of data and tried to explain how LRCX would perform under certain scenario - however though it was not intended as guidance a number of analysts took it as full year guidance.
At the end he got somewhat frustrated but take a look what he says about flatish 07; to me it looks as he applies G's bookings chart
Steve Newberry
If you're going to have a shipment environment in the first half that I just described and you're going to have a shipment environment for the year that's up 5% to 10%, then you're right. As it lays out today, the second half of the year, we'll have lower shipments, and the second half of the year would have lower revenue. Now, I mean I think most of you have been around this industry long enough to know that what we're talking about here is how this year might shape out if it's a 5% increase in spending and wafer fab equipment and the reality is, of course if we have strong first half shipments, the second half has to be lower because if you look at the shape of '06, the first half of '06 was much lower than the second half of '06.
So, if we're going to be, if a company was going to be flat year-over-year, they wouldn't be flat quarter after quarter after quarter. So, it's one of the reasons that sometimes people don't talk about any of this stuff because if -- what comes out of this conversation is a belief that since I've talked to you about what I think the year may play out, that's suddenly now the gospel and that's exactly what's going to happen. Well, that's just flat out not true. We don't know what's going to happen in the second half and what we do know is that if CapEx spending plays out like I've scenarioed it to be, then this is how it's going to look and we'll be at 410 to 430 from an EPS guidance standpoint. So, I'm trying to give people a feel around that scenario and hopefully it's helpful, but if it's confusing I apologize, but I'm not sure what to do. |
