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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (62321)1/19/2007 1:36:26 PM
From: jimmg  Read Replies (3) of 116555
 
mish, you need to distinguish between current strength and future weakness. I think this is why you get a lot of criticism (most not deserved in my opinion). You're talking deflation while the global economy is clearly in an inflationary boom. You're forecasting what will be not what is.

I'll go through a few of your statements:

5a.Oil and gas prices are falling because the economy is weakening. You have this ass backwards.

How do you know why they are falling? I can guarantee you it's not because global demand is down year on year.

6. All-time high corporate cash flows going into share repurchases and shrinking the overall equity base.
6a. That is a sign that corporations have no incentive to expand. They are burning up cash instead with buybacks. Your argument is ass backwards

High stock buybacks is not because there is no incentive to expand. Every publicly traded company is expanding aggressively. Corporate managements are buying back stock because they have a boat load of stock options and they are trying to goose the stock higher. Corporate profitability is at an all-time high by a large margin.

You overlook foreclosures, bankruptcies, and what is really happening with wages.

I don't overlook foreclosures and bankruptcies. They might have an impact on the future but so far are showing no impact in the general economy. I think you overlook what is happening with the job market. All-time low unemployment claims is telling you something and you refuse to acknowledge it.

You totally overlook a GDP that fell to 2%. That alone says you are wrong. Since when is 2% a "strong economy"?

You're right. I totally ignore macro government statistics. They are pure garbage.
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