Peek at the Week: Conference championship edition
Jan. 19, 2007
By Clark Judge
CBS SportsLine.com Senior Writer
NFC Championship Game
New Orleans at Chicago, 3 p.m. ET |
This is where the Saints are supposed to turn into Aints. Not because of how they're playing but because of where they're playing. That's outdoors ... in Chicago ... in January. The weather is expected to be cold, and logic says, so are the Saints. Remember: Over the past two decades, dome teams that go outdoors for conference championship games are 0-6.
But maybe these Saints are different. Logic also says no club that is 3-13 one season should be in a conference championship game the next. Yet the Saints made it. And they made it because, unlike the Bears, they can run and throw. Quarterback Drew Brees just had the season of his career, and was the runner-up to San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson for MVP.
But Brees might not be the key player here. You don't win January games in Chicago by throwing the ball, which means the Saints will have to do to the Bears what Seattle did a week ago -- move the ball with their ground game.
No problem. All the Saints did against Philadelphia was wear down the Eagles with 208 yards rushing, including 143 by Deuce McAllister. He's the inside threat. Rookie Reggie Bush is the outside weapon, especially dangerous when he has the ball in space. The Bears have speed at linebacker, but speed is not what Bush is all about; quickness is, and he's the perfect complement to McAllister's straight-ahead, powerful thrusts.
The Saints have the league's top offense, but it's not their offense that determines what will happen. It's the Chicago defense. If it plays as it did the first half of the season, the Saints are in trouble; if not, the Bears will be on their heels. Seattle shredded them for 306 yards a week ago, and while that total isn't good for an elite defense, it was the fewest Chicago had allowed in seven games. Honest. It's no secret the club hasn't been the same since the loss of defensive tackle Tommie Harris, which makes McAllister that much more of a threat.
The Bears also allowed 24 points last week to the league's 19th-ranked offense. What happens now that the league's best unit is in town? I expect we'll see more yards and more points. Which means we get to talk about Rex Grossman again, even if Grossman isn't in the mood -- which he wasn't this week. You're never sure what you will get with the guy. One moment it's good Rex; the next it's bad Rex. Last weekend we saw a little of both, though Grossman was more accurate than he has been lately.
And that's important. Because while I say you don't want to win games here with the pass, the Bears might be forced into it. That might not be all that bad considering the New Orleans secondary. There's not much speed there, and it's vulnerable to the deep ball -- which, it so happens, is what Chicago likes to throw. Look for Bernard Berrian's number to be called more than once.
Of course, the Bears would like to control the ball with a rushing attack, just as New Orleans would. And they have the weapons in Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. But I expect New Orleans to gang up on the run, forcing Grossman to beat them with the pass. The Saints aren't stupid. They know what you and I know: Grossman is unpredictable and prone to big mistakes. So why not put the game on his shoulders and make him beat you? He might have to if the Chicago defense doesn't emerge from its slump.
Something to consider: The Saints were better on the road this year than they were at home. They were 6-2 on the road; 5-4 at home.
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