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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (33723)1/20/2007 1:00:01 PM
From: JohnM  Read Replies (1) of 541906
 
Sentiment about Iraq will probably do a lot to shape the outcome.

I go back and forth on this one, at least as it involves the Dem primaries. My guess is that there will be little to differentiate Dem candidates here. That means I don't think who voted for or against the Iraq war resolution will matter enough to make a difference. What will matter is the current stance candidates take.

The three top candidates--Clinton, Obama, and Edwards--are genuinely smart people. That won't differentiate them. Experience might. And that's a Clinton strength. Style might. And that's definitely an Obama strength. Clinton comes in a distant third here. But only for the moment. She might surprise here. She certainly, to quote Kevin Drum, has only an upside here. And she showed in NY just how much she could do an upside in her senatorial campaigns and, for that matter, her period in the senate.

She will try to shed the DLC image in the primaries and will try to make it as difficult as possible for Obama and Edwards to outflank her to the left. Or to try to make them sound shrill if they do so.

And Drum didn't mention this but she has, everyone admits, the best political adviser in the country in her husband. And, most likely, the best fund raiser as well.

She'll be awfully hard to beat. In the Dem primaries.

Thanks for asking. I resisted trying to think about this until it was clearer who was in and out.

Care to elaborate a bit more on the "machine" argument? I'm interested.
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