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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 138.94

0.0%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: John Koligman who wrote (175761)	1/22/2007 11:40:49 AM
From: kaka	Read Replies (1) of 176387

Dell: UBS Makes Late Bear Call; Stock's Going Lower Long-term Posted on Jan 22nd, 2007 with stocks: DELL Notable Calls submits: UBS comments on Dell Computer (NASDAQ:DELL) saying checks indicate large PC share losses for Dell in the US and Europe and they believe 4Q07 revenues will be even weaker than they had originally expected. 4Q07 is also anniversary of a 14 week quarter for Dell. The silver lining for Dell is that its ASPs seems to be relatively benign. Firm believes corporate desktops and consumer segments are particularly weak in the US and they believe Dell is losing share in Europe. Also, the ramp up of sales of AMD-based systems may be slower than expected. While the firm has been cautious about Dell's revenues for a long time, they were still surprised at the recent level of y/y PC shipment declines (both worldwide and in the US) that were recent reported from IDC and Gartner. According to IDC, in calendar 4Q06 Dell's worldwide PC units experienced a 8% y/y decline, compared to market growth of 9% and staggering growth from HP of +24%. Factoring in views that share losses should continue, they are cutting estimates. For 4Q07 they estimate EPS of $0.28 (was $0.30) with a revenue decline of 3% to $14.7B (was $15.4B). FY08 estimate is now $1.30 (was $1.35) reflecting revenue growth of 5% to $60B (was $62B) & new FY09 estimate is $1.45 reflecting revenue growth of 6% to $63.5B. Maintains Neutral but lowers tgt to $26 from $27.

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