"...To take a real world example, consider the argument that the war in Iraq was "Blood for Oil". This argument might seem to explain the aggression... but it horribly fails the correct motivation test. Clearly, if the war was all about oil, and had nothing to do with Iraqis, I think it's a good guess (based on history) that we would establish another tyranny (because "what else do the Arabs understand, right?"), one friendly to the US, we'd let the new tyranny sort out Iraq with our military support, and we'd be concentrating monomaniacally on getting the oil wells operational, to the exclusion of everything else. As a condition of the support of the new tyranny, we'd have a significant, direct interest in the new oil wells. This is not a reasonable interpretation of the news coming from Iraq, even if you pay attention only to the "majors". Even if you try to add "covering up" to the mix of motivations, it just doesn't play out; if this was our end goal, there are much, much simpler and more reliable ways to attain it. With a bit of work, we could probably have even done it in a seemingly-legitimate way... after all, France and Russia seem to have managed that trick. (For bonus points, apply this test to their involvement...)
I see no reason at the moment to believe anything but that Bush's primary motivation in Iraq is to genuinely help the Iraqis and to create a stable government there, as one step in a long-term attempt to reform the entire region. Here I use "primary" to mean the one that is driving the majority of the actions taken by the US, not necessarily the one that Bush would consider most important in his private thoughts. We can argue endlessly and fruitfully about whether this was a good idea at all, whether this is the best way to help the Iraqis, whether the motivation is being correctly translated into action, whether there are devious sub-motivations in play from Bush or others, etc. But I think the primary motivation is almost beyond argument; no other motivation that I can think of produces the actions we have seen so far..."
jerf.org |
