Ravi Batra "Surviving the Great Depression of 1990"
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Raveendra N. Batra (b. 27 June 1943) is a U.S. economist and professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, Texas. He is best known for his best selling books The Great Depression of 1990 and Surviving the Great Depression of 1990. In the former book he predicted a sharp rise in the US stock market in the 1980s, followed by a cataclysmic drop and a depression in or around 1990
The main thesis of the book was that the age of acquisitors, better known as capitalism, was soon to come to an end in the West. This dramatic change was to be followed by the downfall of the age of commanders in the Soviet Union, more commonly known as communism. While his predictions for capitalism to collapse within a few decades due to rampant inequality and speculation have not come true, his prediction for the collapse of communism, due to inner stasis and oppression, arrived in 1990, sooner than expected. The key reason that capitalism, as a self-perpetuating social formation, was seen to be on an unsustainable path, was the relentless drive of acquisitors to acquire ever more capital. Over time, this activity was seen to gain momentum and result in financial booms and busts. A depression would then follow and as it came on top of extreme inequality it would quickly bring social chaos and revolt. As anarchy was not a normal state of affairs, the class of military leaders would step in the breech and reestablish order and thereby usher in a new age of "commanders". In this context, Batra reviews a prior such social change, which occurred two millennia ago, when the Roman Republic was transformed into the Roman Empire. At that time slave uprisings were common but were violently suppressed. This period became known as the Servile Wars. At the same time, the military was in ascendancy as the Roman Army continued to expand the empire. The pivotal figure in the development was the military leader, Julius Caesar, who wrested control from the Senate by diluting its membership, but was in turn murdered by the disgruntled Senators. The military class, led by his adopted son Octavian, cemented the new social order. Batra thinks such a scenario in the future will refocus the social motivity, away from acquisition of money to a mastery of technology and physical bravery including the conquest of space, heralding a new age of commanders in the West. These ideas contrast starkly with those of thinkers like Francis Fukuyama who argues that capitalism, as it is based on democracy and freedom, represents the pinnacle of human social development. For Fukuyama, the collapse of Soviet Communism could have been inevitable, but not that of Capitalism.
When 1990 arrived, a minor depression hit Japan and there were concerns about the stability of the US banking system. However, monetary policy was accommodative and effective. Moreover, credible bank insurance was in place and the government had demonstrated resolve to be lender of last resort. As a result, there was no panic in the stock market or run on banks. His reputation rose in Europe on account of his correct prediction for Communism and he was awarded the Medal of the Italian Senate that year. In Japan, where an economic crisis had gripped the country, he continued to publish bestselling works. In the USA, however, his sales began to drop and his booming side-line career as a media commentator on matters economic and financial began to sour. Batra was even presented with an Ig Nobel prize. In the 1990s, he published such books as The Myth of Free Trade and The Pooring of America, criticism of free-market policies.
[edit] Recent works
In 1998, Batra published Stock Market Crashes of 1998 and 1999. The book was revisiting the premise of his earlier bestselling work, arguing nothing had changed, only the pallative cures of economic policy had become more effective at suppressing the symptoms of financial capitalism, but not cure its underlying illness. He therefore predicted increasing stock market volatility. Again in 1999, he published a book The Crash of the Millennium, which suggested a plunge in stocks. The drop in high-tech stocks in the Spring of 2000 sent a shiver through the global market place. However, the capitalist system remained intact and he was proven markèdly wrong yet again. In 2004, he wrote a new book Greenspan's Fraud where he critically evaluates the policy prescriptions of this iconic figure of the economic, financial and political establishment.'
en.wikipedia.org
'The Great Depression of 1990 was on the New York Times best-seller list for non-fictionin the summer of 1987. It follows a standard formula for best sellers in forecasting: Forecast a great disaster, and include a formula for redemption. If the disaster occurs, you can say, “I told you so.” If it doesn't occur, you say, “It is good that they listened to my advice. I saved them.” How can you lose?When I first saw this book, it occurred to me that it was a hoax. Here is a man claiming to be a highly respected economist who makes a forecast and provides a date. The forecast is that the great depression will occur in 1990. A variety of paths to redemption are provided, the most important being that rich people should have to give up much of their riches, for it is the concentration of wealth that causes business cycles. This is a fact that Batra claims to have discovered. Batra suggests that society should tax this wealth. On the other hand, he also provides advice to rich people on how to preserve their wealth – put it in cash, then store it in a safe deposit box and at home. Businessmen should avoid long-term investments'
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