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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 387.98+1.3%Nov 28 4:00 PM EST
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To: energyplay who wrote (13847)1/26/2007 3:38:52 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) of 218074
 
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From Credit Suisse, Exhibit 131, p. 84 - Homebuilding Monthly - Dec. 2006

"Subprime lending represented 21% of total orginations in 2004-2005 versus just 8% of orginations in 2001-3."
Subprime Orginations
2005 - US$665 Billion
2004 - US$530 Billion
2003 - US$332 Billion
2002 - US$213 Billion
2001 - US$173 Billion
2000 - US$138 Billion
(2005 had 5 times as many subprime loans originated than in 2000).

From Credit Suisse, Exhibit 127, p. 82 - Homebuilding Monthly - Dec. 2006

"Of the 40% of mortgages with piggyback loans in the US, 69% have and 80% or higher LTV, while 44% have a 95% LTV or greater."

(I read that as saying that 17% of mortgages made in Q2 2006 had a Loan-to-Value ratio of 95% or higher - hardly room for a margin of error).

Percentage of Mortgages with Piggyback Loans, Second Quarter 2006:
United States 40%
Stockton 70%
Los Angeles 69%
Inland Empire 68%
Las Vegas 64%
Fresno 63%
San Diego 63%
Metro DC 57%
Bay Area 55%
Phoenix 50%


I figure selling house and buying gold is an OK pair-trade, with the former to easily halve and the latter to light-heartedly double, because the house will be progressively a heavier burden, and the gold will be apparent as a savior
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