David, From a biological perspective, I would have to agree that the failure rate of PI's will go much higher than 53% and will probably approach 100%. Moreover, the new cases that develop will be harder to treat and the current success will lead to a new wave of a deadlier disease.
Of course from an investment standpoint, this scenario make actually be good. If PI #1 doesn't work, #2 or #3 might. Meanwhile, while #1 is working, the patients will have more of an opportunity to spread the resistant viruses. There is evidence that the recent good news (improved health due to PI treatments) is already affecting safe sex habits. This was in USA Today:
CDC: Risky sexual behavior increasing
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sounded a
warning Thursday about a return of high-risk sexual behavior that it
fears puts gay men at increased risk of AIDS.
A sharp increase in gonorrhea among men who have sex with men has
been reported by clinics in several cities, including San Francisco,
Seattle and Portland, Ore. The findings led the CDC to warn "that
more people are engaging in behaviors that put them at risk for sexually
transmitted diseases (STDs), clearly with implications for HIV (the
AIDS virus) as well."
"This should be a wake-up call for all of us," says Helene Gayle,
director of the CDC's National Center for HIV, STD and TB
Prevention, who called for "more screenings and more outreach,
especially to younger men."
"The data show that after a period of decreasing rates of sexually
transmitted diseases, we are seeing an increase again," she says. The
data also contrast with a decline in AIDS in the USA overall. Cases of
gonorrhea among men who have sex with men have increased from 5%
in 1993 to 8.7% in 1996, a rise of 74%.
"The implications are clear not only for gay men but for the general
population, if this increased risky behavior correlates with people
thinking the epidemic (is less serious) because of better therapies,"
Gayle says. "We also need to make sure that younger gay men who
were not part of the first wave of this epidemic . . . are getting the
information and services they need."
The best precautions against HIV and other STDs, she says, are
"abstinence and mutual monogamy, followed by condom use. For some
people, abstinence makes the most sense."
By Carole Ashkinaze, USA TODAY |
