SARS and Avian Flu Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu

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To: caly who wrote (3973)	2/2/2007 1:35:50 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) of 4232

re: Although it remains a bird disease, experts still fear it could kill millions once it learns how to pass efficiently among people." I see three interrelated factors determining the damage it does if it mutates: 1. How virulent is it? If someone walks through a crowd of people, how many people are likely to contract the virus in sufficient quantities to have a reaction? 2. What is the latency? How long is the time between when someone reaches the contagious level and when they start showing symptoms? 3. How fatal is it? What percentage of people who contract it will die? The first two factors determine how fast it spreads before detection, and how long scientists have to recognize and respond to a pandemic outbreak. The third factor determines the ultimate damage. Unfortunately we won't know any of those factors for sure until it happens. It might be fairly easy to contain it to a few villages, or it might spread throughout the world before anyone realizes it. The latter could easily occur if it mutates in a transportation hub such as an international airport. One person flying somewhere (probably out of southeast Asia), unknowingly infected with the mutated virus, could wipe out a big chunk of humanity.

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