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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: rich evans who wrote (20628)2/2/2007 5:18:42 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (3) of 78740
 
Rich Evans, about component suppliers. It looks to me like your analysis of these companies has played out correctly over the past two years. Your conclusion to avoid these stocks has proven correct. (imo)

I don't see anything in the business environment where demand will again match supply. Supply just dominates and decimates (it appears to me).

Right now I'm somewhat conflicted: It's what I see or don't see in the future vs. my reliance on past historical performance reverting to a mean. A possibly permanently changed business environment vs. rear-view mirror investing.

Sometimes, at some point, I override my feelings and just buy based on companies falling within the numerical ratios I'm looking for.

I'm buying VSH now, and adding a little to remnant holding of SEMI. Very small bets only. The stocks fit what I'm looking for in p/sales and p/book. Two somewhat comforting aspects for me: with SEMI, an outside company has taken a large position at around current price, and wants to work with SEMI to increase shareholder value (so they apparently say). With VSH, I notice that Matrix Asset Advisors has a position, and I have a lot of respect for the stock picking ability of David Katz, the guy running it. But not enough respect or confidence to make more that just a very small bet on VSH (or SEMI). -gg-

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