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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2007
IWM 247.32+0.9%Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Q. who wrote (85)2/2/2007 11:43:56 PM
From: Q.  Read Replies (1) of 94
 
My final result: +3.36%.

Today is the first Friday in February, which is my end point for performance measurement.

I haven't actually sold any of my positions, due to being too busy at work, so I'll measure performance using the closing price today. The basis I'll use is the actual after-commission price I bought at in late December, and I'll equally weight each position (if I used my actual weights it would make my performance look better by a negligible 0.1%). I compare to the RUT, which gained 1.4% from Dec. 27 to Feb. 2 closing prices for basis and end, respectively, because I bought most of my positions Dec. 27. I include my dividends, which came from the two Canadian Income trusts, CNE and AAV. The RUT earned about 0.1% dividend, which I also count.

Returns:

My portfolio: + 3.36%
Russell 2000: + 1.50%


So I beat the RUT by 1.86% in just over a month. That's nothing to get excited about. In fact, it's not statistically meaningful when I outpeformed by under 2% with only 14 positions that had a standard deviation of 14%. But it's at least not an embarassment.

If there's any trend worth noting, it's this: stocks below my median of 1.75 outperformed those above 1.75 by a lot, 8.5% vs. -1.8%. Basically all of my outperformance of the RUT is attributable to the cheaper half of my issues.

Amazingly, my favorite stock actually did best: VSTY. I think I'll hold it. Unlike the dreck in the other issues, VSTY just makes sense. It was a perennially profitable but sleepy company that ruined it all with a very bad diversification. Late last year they fired the CEO and proceeded to undo the diversification, and if they just follow that simple strategy the stock should continue recovering.



entire portfolio:

Symbol Basis Feb 2 Dividend Return

ESY.TO 0.49 0.57 16.33%
SYBR 0.84 0.8089 -3.70%
MCEL 0.91 1.1 20.88%
EON.V 0.91 0.92 1.10%
HYGS 1.28 1.02 -20.31%
FUEL 1.41 1.6 13.48%
VSTY 1.63 2.15 31.90%
CRTX 1.86 1.76 -5.38%
AEY 2.79 2.99 7.17%
RVE.TO 3.44 3.6 4.65%
FORD 4.26 4.2 -1.41%
LTON 5.21 4.41 -15.36%
AAV 10.37 10.71 0.33 6.46%
CNE 13.9 12.32 0.36 -8.78%

average 3.36%

cheaper half:

ESY.TO 0.49 0.57 16.33%
SYBR 0.84 0.8089 -3.70%
MCEL 0.91 1.1 20.88%
EON.V 0.91 0.92 1.10%
HYGS 1.28 1.02 -20.31%
FUEL 1.41 1.6 13.48%
VSTY 1.63 2.15 31.90%

average 8.52%

pricier half:

CRTX 1.86 1.76 -5.38%
AEY 2.79 2.99 7.17%
RVE.TO 3.44 3.6 4.65%
FORD 4.26 4.2 -1.41%
LTON 5.21 4.41 -15.36%
AAV 10.37 10.71 0.33 6.46%
CNE 13.9 12.32 0.36 -8.78%

average -1.81%
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