messages.finance.yahoo.com
posted on SNDK board.
FROM A PRUDENTIAL NOTE THIS MORNING:
HIGHLIGHTS
• Our checks indicate that Apple's next generation Video iPod may be based on NAND flash technology instead of hard disk drives (HDDs), which are currently being used as the Video iPod's storage medium. We expect this version of the Video iPod to be released in late 2007.
• We think that this will be an incremental negative for Marvel in 2008, who we believe is the major supplier of SoC's into the Video iPod through its relationship with Toshiba. We believe that Toshiba is the primary supplier of 1.8" HDDs into the Video iPod, and that Marvell has 100% of the SoCs into
the Toshiba 1.8" drive. We estimate that in 2007 the Video iPod will generate $40-$60 million in revenues for Marvell.
• We believe that Apple could source NAND flash from a number of different suppliers, including Samsung, Hynix, Toshiba, Intel and Micron. Assuming 32 gigabytes of NAND flash memory per Video iPod at $130, that would translate to $2.0-$2.5 billion in NAND revenues in 2008. We would expect Apple to divide that amongst several suppliers, however, assuming that the IM (Intel/Micron) NAND flash joint venture won 100% of that business, we estimate that would translate to an additional $0.02 per share for Intel in 2008.
Most importantly - AAPL will not be the only one that will transfer from HD to NAND. In fact, every MP3/Video gear maker, other than Apple - Creative, Sony, Archos, HP, DELL, ... will be more motivated for the transition since Apple has been the only one that gets its 1.8" HD supply guaranteed. |
